Meaning of Chinese Factor for Mode...
文章摘要
The acute phase of the global financial and economic crisis observed in 2008-2009 and the start of global reforms initiated by Group of Twenty predetermined the beginning of a new stage of international monetary and financial system (IMFS) development. This new stage is characterized by active Chinese factor applying for the leading positions of IMFS in long-run, i.e. among the “core” countries. The word combination “Chinese factor” here and after refers to the success of China having been achieved in national economic progress and in the field of IMFS during the “reforms and openness” since 1978. The purpose of the research is to assess the current state of the Chinese national financial system for the possibility of China to become one of the “core” countries of IMFS and then strengthen the dominant positions.The report consists of five parts. Section 1 is devoted to the analysis of the level, the structure and features of Chinese financial system. Section 2 includes the evaluation of national monetary effects namely related to currency liberalization and internationalization of Chinese RMB. Section 3 comprises the degree and depth of Chinese inclusion into the IMFS, its achievements in developing of the new spheres of financial relations on the example of “green” financial instruments market. Section 4 involves author’s forecast and recommendations for maintaining further quantitative and qualitative growth and economic progress. Section 5 concludes the research.We used statistical and comparative analysis of a wide range of financial indicators such as levels of financial depth, bank and non-bank assets ratios, banking concentration, volumes of lending to real sector of economy, market capitalization, real effective exchange rates, currency structure of cross-border transactions, foreign exchange market turnover, global and national “green” bond issuance, etc. To conduct comparative analysis we generally employed the examples and data on the USA, UK and Eurozone, Japan and Russia.According to the results of Section 1, the Chinese financial sector is characterized by the dominance of bank assets (the model of financial sector can be named as “banking” one), relatively high level of bank concentration and relatively low degree of financial depth. These facts can be considered both as advantages and as disadvantages. On the one hand, such a model of national financial system is more convenient for state control and regulation; on the other hand, it artificially limits the ability to raise capital.Based on the second part of research the following conclusions were made. Since the “reforms and openness” from 1978 in compliance with gradualism strategy China reached a high level of RMB internationalization namely its including into the basket of world reserve currencies in 2016. This is an important event for international financial relations because China became the first developing country reached such significant results and started the revision process of world currency financial principles and law and rethinking of world financial organizations’ requirements (notably those of IMF).On the ground of Section 3, we identified the challenges and limiting factors for China to become one of the “core” countries in the IMFS, i.e. the features of FDI inflows and outflows referred to as “financial cycle” and “irrational investment” effect, etc. But there are very strong positive and perspective outcomes from Chinese cooperation with other countries within the “Belt and Road” initiative (BRI) as an effect opposing to the negative ones mentioned above. Here we also refer to the problems and prospects of conjugation processes between the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the BRI. Additionally, several Chinese banks and insurance company are in the list of global systemically important institutions in 2010s.Section 3 also contains the results of research in the field of modern trends associated with in the development of national and world financial systems “greening”. The main factor here is the gradual moving of China to the leading position both in in terms of the evolutionary level of national “green finance” according to international comparison and within the framework of the global “green” financial market functioning as a new component of world financial system. China’s achievements are marked mainly in three areas: (1) significant real and potential achievements of national “green” market initiatives; (2) progress in creation of effective management system for “green finance” regulation; (3) active expansion of international cooperation and comprehensive support provided to developing countries moving towards the promotion of financial “greening”. The main reasons for the popularity of “green” finance in China are the relevance of environmental problems occurred because of the transformation of the country into “the world’s factory” and the need to achieve the goals of “ecological civilization” and “harmonious society” construction. The special part of the research refers to possibilities of the Sino-Russian cooperation in this sphere.According to the parts of research within the Sections 1-3, since the mid-2000s China cannot be clearly attributed either to the “core”, or to the “periphery” states of the IMFS. Now this country is situated in the intermediate “near-core” financial “space”.Section 4 includes the following main judgments and main recommendations which from our point of view could be useful for China to become one of the “core” countries of the IMFS.Firstly, it is suggested for China to make choice and place a bet on the development of new spheres of financial relations and innovative financial products’ creation and development thereby to find its own “niches” within the global financial system and strongly strengthen the leading positions there. The emerging examples of these “niches” in the modern world economy are the global “green” financial instruments market, the mobile payments area, segments of e-commerce, etc.Secondly, it is proposed for China during the further RMB internalization, first of all, to transform it into a strong regional currency, for instance, within the Asian region already feels the active presence of “Chinese factor” on itself, and then to intensify the processes of its “globalization”. It is the regional multi-vector cooperation that helps China to entice the “periphery” of the USA-centric global financial system and thus to change the position of developing countries on a new stage of the IMFS development. Additionally, China puts forward the principles of mutual benefits and trust for international cooperation, which are much more attractive than the US “the winner takes it all” strategy and “games” with nil zero, unfair sanction regimes practice, etc. activities.Thirdly, it is offered to lower the dependence on the US dollar by the use of national currencies for cross-border settlements, also develop and make interconnection of national payment systems. It is extremely important for those countries that nowadays face the problem of sanctions (in particular Russia) and trade wars (i.e. China).Fourthly, it is provided for China to maintain the unity and coherence of the internal development goals and adherence to its reaching, i.e. to build the “financial system with Chinese specific”. It means that such a financial system will serve the purposes of “ecological civilization”, “harmonious society” and “community of common destiny” creation being based on strong philosophical ground and the idea of balanced market regulation.Finally, it is proposed for China to further follow the gradualism approach while reforming the financial and economic system. This approach allows the country not only to employ and develop necessary “chains” of institutes, correct the mistakes and effectively respond to challenges, but also to make “burst” in the future.Section 5 combines all the results obtained during the research which parts are presented and analyzed above.
Abstract
The acute phase of the global financial and economic crisis observed in 2008-2009 and the start of global reforms initiated by Group of Twenty predetermined the beginning of a new stage of international monetary and financial system (IMFS) development. This new stage is characterized by active Chinese factor applying for the leading positions of IMFS in long-run, i.e. among the “core” countries. The word combination “Chinese factor” here and after refers to the success of China having been achieved in national economic progress and in the field of IMFS during the “reforms and openness” since 1978. The purpose of the research is to assess the current state of the Chinese national financial system for the possibility of China to become one of the “core” countries of IMFS and then strengthen the dominant positions.
作者简介
Violetta Arkhipova:Senior Researcher, Institute of Economics of Russian Academy of Sciences