State, Inclusive Development and M...
文章摘要
China has starred in the last decades the greatest economic revolution in the history of mankind, never a population had so intensely changed their material living conditions in such a short period of time.Its economic revolution is synthesized in the average annual growth rate of 10 percent, achieved in this period. Chinese economic growth has been based on exports and investments. Now there is a change in the model, necessary so that China’s economy can maintain a balanced and sustained growth in the long term. This “rebalancing” of the economy has wide consequences, not only in China but especially on the international economy.China has normally dedicated more than 40 percent of its GDP to investment.Industrial production accounts for almost 50 percent of that GDP, while services do not reach 40 percent. The household savings rate is very high, while consumption accounts for 35 percent of GDP.This structure of the Chinese economy is related to some of the issues that cause friction in its international economic relations. China has produced much more than it has consumed, and the difference has been destined for export.In this way, it has obtained high trade surpluses with numerous countries, which have caused discontent and conflicts with other economic powers. With the reform process of the last 30 years, the Chinese economy has been profoundly transformed, and it has also changed its relationship with the outside world, in multiple ways.The most important idea is that China has become a leading source of financing for the rest of the world, including industrialized countries and also Latin American countries.The big question that is posed for the future is whether China will be able to maintain the impressive growth rates it has achieved in the last three decades. It is reasonable to think that the Chinese economic miracle will remain in the future. Logically, it will not be with the same growth rates, but they will still be very high anyway.In this optimistic forecast there is a fairly widespread consensus between international organizations and analytical companies that have made long-term forecasts on the evolution of the world economy. To cite an example, the consultant PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) foresees, in a well-known prospective study, that by 2050 the Chinese economy will be the world’s first in size and superior to the US by 29 percent. The PwC calculations are based on the fact that the Chinese economy will maintain an average growth rate of 6.8 percent in the coming decades, which will allow per capita income growth of more than 4 percent per year.We can identify and list 8 factors on which China’s economic growth and inclusive development has been based. These 8 components that I am going to list below become especially strategic at the time of carrying out an analysis compared to the growth and development patterns present and absent in the 23 countries of Latin America and the CaribbeanThese 8 key factors are as follows.1 Availability of abundant and qualified workforce. China also has highly skilled labor, on the basis of which there is already an important development of high-tech industries (and their exports).2 A growth model “open” to external relations. The growth model of the Chinese economy has been oriented abroad, towards integration into the international economy.3 The progressive development of market forces. The reform policy has driven decisively, although gradually and prudently, the liberalization of the economic system and the progressive implementation of market forces, which has been a powerful instrument to achieve greater efficiency and high growth.4 An institutional framework favorable to economic growth and business. This framework is configured by various elements:5 A favorable and positive atmosphere towards business, both in government and in society in general.6 Attitude favorable to consensus and negotiation. It is a cultural feature traditionally attributed to Chinese society, which has had a favorable influence on the business development framework.7 Political and social stability. The political risk indicators developed for China are generally favorable. The social conflict is relatively low although it has increased in recent times.8 A process of gradual and prudent reform, which has avoided convulsions and high social costs.The experience and lessons learned from the China case are an excellent example to think and plan an inclusive development strategy in the case of Argentina and the 22 countries that make up the Latin American and Caribbean regionIn Argentina and in most of the economies of the Latin American region, the economy is exposed to fluctuations in the value of its main export products Capital goods and intermediate inputs need to be imported. This is the only way to achieve economic growth, external balance and a favorable evolution of the living standards of society as a whole, making the sustained increase in systemic productivity the key to the competitiveness of the economy.In the current global economic scenario, the growing demand for foreign exchange that requires an increasingly interrelated productive system with the world demands that this effort be even greater.Moreover, if we consider that the global scenario is highly competitive, organized in global value chains where the location of production is subject to permanent changes and where the bulk of trade flows within the framework of preferential agreements.If Argentina does not read and interpret properly the phenomena that are occurring in the international economy, the price of productive, technological and knowledge isolation can be very high.This means that there will be no sustained development, improvement of the standard of living and social inclusion without a modern, dynamic, competitive and inclusive productive structure in which market signals and policy initiatives are coordinated and complemented intelligently.If, with adequate incentives, the private initiative is the one who is in a position to provide the innovation and business dynamism essential for the development process, only government action.In this sense, we identify four strategic components to promote an inclusive development strategy both in Argentina and in the countries of the LATAM region.1 A new institutional framework that defines rules of the game consistent with the development strategy and a reform of the State that progressively rebuilds its structure and recovers its main functions, eliminating discretion and restoring professional bureaucracies.2 An ambitious infrastructure plan supported by public investment that also has a strategic participation of the private sector.3 The establishment of adequate policy incentives for the expansion of the most competitive productive sectors.4 A substantive change in the international insertion strategy that drives multilateral, regional and bilateral negotiations.To conclude this presentation, I would like to emphasize once again the importance of analyzing in an exhaustive and comparative perspective the case of the model developed by China.It is an interesting example of growth and inclusive economic, especially for the 23 countries that make up the Latin American and Caribbean region. The region that presents the greatest levels of inequality in the world.
Abstract
China has starred in the last decades the greatest economic revolution in the history of mankind, never a population had so intensely changed their material living conditions in such a short period of time. Its economic revolution is synthesized in the average annual growth rate of 10 percent, achieved in this period. Chinese economic growth has been based on exports and investments. Now there is a change in the model, necessary so that China’s economy can maintain a balanced and sustained growth in the long term. This “rebalancing” of the economy has wide consequences, not only in China but especially on the international economy.
作者简介
Gonzalo Dieguez:Director of the Public Management Program, Center for the Implementation of Pubic Policies Promoting Equity and Growth, Argentina