Belt and Road Initiative Perspectives for Central Asian Countries
文章摘要
Central Asia (CA) countries, located in the center of the Great Silk Road, since long time have occupied an important place in strengthening interstate trade, economic and cultural ties. That is why for of the CA countries which do not have an access to seaports participation in One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is of particular importance especially in the implementation of joint transport and communication projects. In this context, the OBOR project aimed at further expanding trade and economic cooperation between the countries of the Great Silk Road is also of great importance for the development of the economic potential of the Central Asian countries.Creation of transport corridors. Importance of this problem and the challenges associated with transport isolation requires an assessment of a number of economic, social and political consequences of the implementation of the OBOR initiative for the CA countries.(1) For CA countries the corridors leading to Iranian and Pakistani ports are of particular interest are, as it can provide access to the foreign trade cargo to the emerging markets of South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. In case of successful functioning of one of these corridors, CA countries get an opportunity to attract additional transit cargo flows.(2) Recent launch of the Angren-Pap electrified railway connecting the Ferghana Valley with the main part of Uzbekistan, which has reduced the distance to China by 270 km, the implementation of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway corridor, will become its key element ensuring the inclusion of Central Asian countries to a global network of logistics routes.As a result, Central Asian countries receive direct access not only to China, but also to the Middle East. In addition, the functioning of this route will reduce the time of transportation of goods by 5-6 days.(3) There has been an increase in the transport of foreign trade cargo of CA countries by rail to and from China. In addition, an increase in the volume of transit traffic to and from China was also recorded. Recent positive dynamics in the commodity trade between CA countries and China increase mutual interest in the development of effective logistics schemes for the transportation of goods and development of transport infrastructure in general.(4) Creation of Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-China automobile route in order to diversify foreign trade transportation routes, primarily from the southern regions of CA (as an alternative corridor connecting the CA countries with China) through the territory of Tajikistan is of big importance for the successful realization of OBOR project.Implementation of regional development projects. Along with the creation of transport and logistics routes connecting CA through China and Russia with the markets of South and Southeast Asia, as well as European countries, the implementation of specific programs and regional development projects involving large-scale projects in the field of trade, investment and energy with involvement of mineral resources and human capital of CA countries.In order to intensify the implementation of the projects along the Central Corridor, it is proposed to create a Transport Working Group consisted with the staff of competent ministries and departments of all the countries involved to the project to develop ideas about optimization of the route, of the cost of transportation of goods, to discuss tariffs for the transportation of goods by rail across the territories of CA countries.Implementation of joint projects in the field of high technology. This initiative involves creation of integrated industrial technology parks, science and innovation clusters and free economic zones. Taking into account current supply and demand in the markets of CA countries, it seems most appropriate to start work on the production of mobile phones, sewing machines, building materials, solar collectors and other competitive products.In addition, given the relevance of the development of the agricultural sector with implementation of the progressive scientific achievements, it seems appropriate to invest into creation of modern planting bases for the seed industry, into development of eco-parks and centers for processing agricultural products having very productive potential and reserves for cooperation in the areas of high technology.Wide use of huge tourism potential. Comparative advantages of the CA countries in the tourism on the routes of the Great Silk Road with cities of a thousand-year history and rich culture, have not yet been revealed. It should be noted that, together with the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, restoration of historical monuments of the Khorezm region of the Republic of Uzbekistan is currently underway (restoration of the Amir Tura Madrasah and the Khasan-Murad Kushbegi Mosque located in the Ichan Kala complex in Khiva city). However, such examples are sporadic.An active role of China in the economic transformation of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA) can also greatly contribute to the implementation of regional projects for the development of tourism in this neighboring country including restoration of historical and cultural heritage and development of material and raw materials in the territory of the IRA, as well as projects of creation of new tourist routes, passing through the territory of this country.China market access for goods with high value added from CA countries. Removal of non-tariff barriers and restrictions for Uzbek products in Chinese market, in particular, for textile and knitwear, leather and footwear products, food and processed agricultural products, cable and wire products, building materials should be one of fundamental moments for the participation of CA countries in the implementation of the OBOR initiative. In this context, effective interaction on harmonization of customs procedures and tariff policies of all interested parties, the introduction of modern technical means of customs control (putting into operation of mobile inspection and inspection systems for cargo scanning) is very important to achieve this goal.Cooperation in the field of information and communication technologies. Establishing a close partnership in ensuring information security, developing e-commerce by expanding cooperation with Chinese companies (such as Alibaba, Tencent, Jumore) would promote the promotion of goods and increase export of partner countries in the digital market. Also it is important to cooperate in preparation of highly qualified IT personnel, organization of trainings and educational programs for young professionals from CA countries in the areas of telecommunications, Safe City, technology parks and etc.For the consistent implementation of the perspective areas of cooperation within the framework of the OBOR initiative, the following tasks are proposed.1. Strengthening interconnectedness, joint promotion of the construction of international trunk corridors and the formation of an infrastructure network connecting the regions of Asia, Europe and Africa.2. Coordination of the socio-economic policies pursued by the countries of the region, which implies the strengthening of mutual political trust, looking for common ground in the field of economic development, regional cooperation, building a constructive dialogue to address pressing issues, and providing political support for the implementation of large projects.3. Promotion of trade and investment by opening free trade zones, reducing trade barriers and simplifying customs procedures. For now within the framework of the OBOR between CA countries and China any trade projects (despite the presence of all the necessary prerequisites and conditions) have not been implemented.4. The priority area of the investment partnership is the energy sector (exploration and development of coal, oil, gas, hydropower and renewable energy sources). However, the process of attracting Chinese investment should be clearly coordinated with the priorities for the development of the fuel and energy sector and with mandatory observance of profitability parameters for CA countries.5. Implementation of investment projects to organize the production of finished products and their export to China and other markets, identifying as an important area of attracting Chinese investment in the electrical industry, digital technology, telecommunications, the production of medical equipment and equipment, new building materials.6. Financial integration, which undermines opening of stocks and bonds market in Asia, promotion of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and BRICS Development Bank, as well as creation of financing mechanism of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (ShCO).In general, active promotion of the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative in CA, from one side it creates favorable conditions for ensuring regional security and sustainable development of the region. One of the positive results of this project seems to be a reduction in transportation costs, development of logistics, increase diffusion of innovation in the region. It will help to increase competitiveness of the goods and services, improvement of living standards and economic modernization.Besides, an implementation of this project should not become an instrument for increasing imbalances in the economy and social life in the region.For instance, due to the low level of diversification of the national economies of the CA countries after the implementation of transport projects linking with China on their territory can lead to negative balance of payment.In addition, it should initially provide measures and mechanisms to prevent the transformation of certain countries of the region into a mineral and raw materials appendage of rapidly growing economies. The likelihood of increased financial and investment dependence of certain less developed countries in the region is also high.The growth of geopolitical tensions and institutional rivalry between the major powers already poses certain challenges for the implementation of the OBOR initiative. The flaring up “trade war” with the United States, Washington’s introduction of higher tariffs on Chinese imports could have a negative impact on the economies of the countries involved into the OBOR initiative.The reduction in imports to the US market will force the Chinese government to expand exports of its products to other markets, especially those countries that participate in Chinese transport projects. Therefore, as the US-China crisis worsens, one can expect an increase in Chinese influence towards the countries that are part of the OBOR.In this regard, all participants in this major project must firmly adhere to a course to build balanced constructive and mutually beneficial cooperation with leading states in order to maintain geopolitical balance in the region by comprehensively diversifying their interaction in the political, trade, economic, investment, cultural, humanitarian, scientific and technical fields.
Abstract
Central Asia (CA) countries, located in the center of the Great Silk Road, since long time have occupied an important place in strengthening interstate trade, economic and cultural ties. That is why for of the CA countries which do not have an access to seaports participation in One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is of particular importance especially in the implementation of joint transport and communication projects. In this context, the OBOR project aimed at further expanding trade and economic cooperation between the countries of the Great Silk Road is also of great importance for the development of the economic potential of the Central Asian countries.
作者简介
Sharofiddin Nazarov:Director, Center for Economic Research, Uzbekistan