Building Community between China a...
文章摘要
Regional integration has been part of the history of Latin America and the Caribbean since its process of independence from Spain around 200 years ago. Since the 19th century with leader Simon Bolivar, the debate over development has included ideas on regional integration and ways to achieve it. The goal of economic and social progress in the region has constantly been linked with plans to work together, have a sense of community and building a shared future.Throughout decades the region has been continuously moving back and forth from an integration focus on social issues to another that gives more importance to commerce and economic development. Today, Latin American countries have shift to the right-wing of the political spectre, which has changed the position of the region on integration, moving towards to trade, giving special interest to strengthening bonds with regions beyond the United States as a way to achieve development and stable growth. The disappearance of UNASUR, the growth of the Pacific Alliance, especially after the United States has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the joint negotiations between Central America and Korea that have led to the signing of Free Trade Agreement, and the agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union are some of the main events that have happen only in the last couple of years that have shifted the scenario in Latin America.In this process China is playing an important role. With a population of 1.3 billion, China is the world’s second largest economy, the largest if measured in purchasing price parity terms, and has become the largest single contributor to world growth since the global financial crisis of 2008. Since 2005, China signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Chile, which not only was the first FTA with a Latin American country, but the first FTA between China and a single country, instead of a regional group. After that China has signed Free Trade Agreements with Peru and Costa Rica, being this last one the first Central American country to sign this type of agreement with China. Today China represents 12.5% of world trade and it has become the second largest trading partner with Latin America, after the United States, being responsible for 10% of total exports of the region and 18% of total imports. China has become a great contributor of investment, giving more than 89 loans to latin american countries between 2005 and 2018, which amount a total over $140 million, mostly invested in energy, infrastructure and mining projects.Most recently China has commenced a major global effort to bolster its global position through a plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which recently includes Latin America. China and economies that have signed cooperation agreements with China on the BRI (henceforth BRI-participating economies) have been rising as a share of the world economy, which translates into China becoming a promoter of cooperation and alliances aimed to the development of a global infrastructure that will improve progress in the regions involved. The accomplishments that will be made by BRI, could certainly consolidate the position of China in the world. According to the World Bank, BRI infrastructure improvements could increase total trade among BRI economies between 2.5 percent to 4.1 percent. The impact of the initiative, according to the World Bank, will promote the consolidation of long-standing agreements and open markets. China’s BRI then could become an important factor to the promotion of trade cooperation in a world where other big economies are moving away from multilateralism.However, is important that the Chinese development programs and cooperation agenda goes beyond the economic sphere and the creation of infrastructure related to the promotion of trade. Although these are key areas that have led to economic growth, it is also important to establish initiatives that could help bring that development to all social groups of the countries involved and contribute to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Is not possible to think in progress and development without talking about inclusion, access to basic resources, the defense of human rights, equality and sustainability. A more integrated and comprehensive perspective would have to be generated from more direct communication between the Government of China and the different communities in countries with which China is cooperating. This includes listening to communities by developing initiatives with different social groups and sectors, as well as work with international organizations that could help China understand the different problems that affect communities and how to create projects that would contribute to the solution of social issues in different countries and regions.In order to do this, China and Latin America and the Caribbean need to identify opportunities to learn from each other to build a community with a shared future. Today the world is experimenting a period where the main issues are no longer local or regional, but global. A stepping stone in this process of new relations is to understand and learn from each other to overcome these issues together.The effects of Climate Change have provoked disasters that cannot be consider “natural” because they are caused by the direct or indirect action of humans, which has led to the rise of the temperature of the planet: a rise in floods and droughts that are damaging crops, reducing the access to water and food; an increase of extreme storms that are destroying homes; and the presence of forest fires in the Amazons and Africa that are killing an important part of some of the main lungs of our planet.The advancement of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is promoting innovation in all industries like never seen before. Previous industrial revolutions liberated humankind from animal power, made mass production possible and brought digital capabilities to billions of people, but this Fourth Industrial Revolution is, however, fundamentally different. It is characterized by a range of new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, impacting all disciplines, economies and industries. The resulting shifts and disruptions mean that we live in a time of great promise and the world has the potential to connect billions of people more to digital networks, dramatically improve the efficiency of organizations and even manage assets in ways that can help regenerate the natural environment, potentially undoing the damage of previous industrial revolutions. However, organizations might be unable to adapt; governments could fail to employ and regulate new technologies to capture their benefits; shifting power will create important new security concerns; inequality may grow due to a rise in unemployment; and societies fragment. (Schwab, 2017)The population around the world is taking the streets as a method to show the social discontent triggered by income inequality, corruption, gender gap and human right issues, among others. Since 1980, the share of national income going to the richest 1 percent has increased rapidly in North America, China, India, and Russia and more moderately in Europe according to the World Inequality Report 2018, while the World Economic Forum has presented that the global gender gap will take 108 years to close and the economic gender parity remains 202 years off. At the same time the percepception of corruption in the vast majority of countries have made little to no progress and only 20 have made significant progress in recent years, according to the Corruption Perception Index 2018, made by Transparency International. The protests happening in cities around the world show that the population is demanding changes on this issues and that is important to think on ways to allow development to reach everyone.
Figure 1 Income inequality is rising or staying extremely high nearly everywhere Top 10% income shares across the world,1980~2016
Finally, despite the global problems faced today, there is a clear political trend that seeks to move countries away from multilateralism and regional integration. The European Union is dealing with the political, social and economical instability brought by Brexit, while the United States is re-negotiating Free Trade Agreements and has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership under a campaign to recover its former economic and production independence.In this global scenario, Latin America and the Caribbean is particularly vulnerable. The region is dependent mainly on exportation of commodities like petroleum, copper and soy beans, while trade is mostly focus on the United States, a country that in 2017 represented 44.76% of total exports and 32.13% of total imports with the region, according to the World Bank. In 2017, the number of people living in poverty reached 184 million (30.2% of the population), of whom 62 million live in extreme poverty (10.2% of the population, the highest percentage since 2008), according to the report “Social Panorama of Latin America 2018” made by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The same report shows that Latin America and the Caribbean also continue to be the most unequal region in the world, presenting an average Gini Index higher than Africa and almost a third higher than Europe and Central Asia.The region has made efforts to overcome social issues. The World Economic Forum in the Social Progress Index Report 2018, which analyzes areas like access to education and health, inclusion, freedom, quality of life, infrastructure, environmental impact, among other factors, showed that most Latin America and the Caribbean countries have reach a middle-high level of Social Progress, with the exception of Costa Rica, Chile and Uruguay, which have a high-level, and Bolivia, which has a low-level. The positions achieved so far have no changed much during the last years, which increases the fears of stagnation due to the “Middle Income Trap”. However, the vulnerable situation that Latin America and the Caribbean continues to have are increasing concerns over the effects that the global problems on the region’s opportunities to achieve its potential for social development.By September 4th 2019, a total of 2.5 millions acres of forest were destroyed during the forest fire in the Amazons in Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay and Peru according to Greenpeace, which has set not only enviromental problems but has damaged the relations between Brazil and France, jeopardizing the agreement between the important south-american block MERCOSUR and the European Union. Climate Change is costing around 17,000 - 27,000 million dollars a year and could reach 100.000 million dollars in 2050, affecting children, women, older population and farmers, according to the report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Ibero-America, presented on the XXVI Summit of Ibero-American chiefs of State and Governments in Guatemala on November 2018.
Figure 2 Percentage of workers in occupations with high risk of automatization
The riots in Venezuela and Nicaragua, and recently in Chile and Ecuador, are paralyzing this countries, generating a level of instability that could be contagious in the region and that could impact investment and growth. The presence of drug production and traffic have increase the level of violence, corruption and social problems in several countries in the region like Peru, Colombia, México and Central America, a sub-region that despite not being a producer of illegal drugs is an important corridor for drug traffic. The increase of violence and political instability has provoked a rise in migration within Latin America and from Latin America to the United States, including the migration of 4 million venezuelans in 2019, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).The effects of automatization during the Fourth Industrial Revolution are also increasing the vulnerability of the region. The Inter-american Development Bank in 2018 showed in Latin American countries more than 60% of workers are at high risk of losing their jobs due to automatization, especially in Guatemala and El Salvador, where 75% of the working population are at risk of being unemployed due to this global trend.The Chinese experience presents an opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean to reduce its vulnerability in this areas and continue a path of development. Building a community between China and Latin America and the Caribbean is a key for social development.China has proved there is more than one model of development and governance on the path to success. According to the data provided by the World Bank, since 1978 China’s GDP growth has averaged nearly 10% a year, which is the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history, and more than 850 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. In this sense, China has created long term plans to promote building infrastructure that is key for the country’s development, inclusion, poverty reduction and social progress, especially in areas like transportation and agriculture. In the past decades, China developed irrigation and water conservation projects; constructed county and township highways through the Food-for-Work program; built 244,000 of kilometers between 1994 and 2002 for the 8-7 National Poverty Reduction Program, which aimed to lift 80 million people out of poverty in the seven years from 1994 to 2000; and has begun to put into operation over 25,000 kilometers of dedicated high-speed railway (HSR) lines since 2008, far more than the total high-speed lines operating in the rest of the world. The experience of China developing plans to reduce poverty and promote inclusion through infrastructure sets an example for Latin America and the Caribbean.The Chinese experience also sets an example regarding technology, innovation, research, and development. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, China’s investment in R&D is growing at an annual rate of 18%, which means that at this rate by 2030 the country will be investing a bigger percentage of GDP in R&D than the United States. The rise of Chinese technology companies like Huawei and the launch of “Made in China 2025”, a state-led industrial policy that seeks to make China dominant in global high-tech manufacturing, are impressively moving China from being a developing country to a leader in innovation and new technologies, a path that Latin America and the Caribbean need to follow to face the Fourth Industrial Revolution.Unfortunately, China’s intensive growth in the past decades has also brought an increase in CO2 emissions from the country, which is contributing to the effects of Climate Change, and therefore is an aspect that should be a concern for the future of the country and the world. According to the United Nation’s Emission Gap Report 2018, China was responsible for 26.8% of the total emission in the world in 2017, which almost doubles the amount emitted by the United States, second most contaminating country in the planet. China today is moving towards clean energy and has obtained a leading position, not just in the manufacturing sector, but also in the innovation and deployment of renewable energy technologies, and now has become one of the best countries for renewable energy investment, accounting for more than 45% of the global total in 2017. However, the country is still highly dependent on oil imports that have been growing steadily, and the levels of air contamination in main cities is still a big challenge to overcome.In this area Latin America and the Caribbean have made efforts that deserve to be analyzed. Costa Rica and Chile have declared the goal to be carbon neutral by 2021 and 2030 respectively, making efforts to create new national parks, use of clean energy sources and promote electric public transportation. Chile has launch the second biggest fleet of electric buses in the world and Costa Rica is functioning for the second year in a row on 98% of its energy coming from renewable sources. Strengthening the bonds between China and Latin America and the Caribbean beyond economic factor will help to learn from different solutions to the global problems the planet face today.
Abstract
Regional integration has been part of the history of Latin America and the Caribbean since its process of independence from Spain around 200 years ago. Since the 19th century with leader Simon Bolivar, the debate over development has included ideas on regional integration and ways to achieve it. The goal of economic and social progress in the region has constantly been linked with plans to work together, have a sense of community and building a shared future.
作者简介
Esteban Andres Zolezzi Sanchez:Senior Researcher, Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences General Secretariat