2021年,全球经济历经艰难实现复苏,但受世界范围内持续的边境封锁、交通管控和旅行限制等多重因素影响,身处大洋的太平洋岛国的经济复苏之路显得更加漫长。持续的防疫压力,叠加经济萎缩、就业低迷、居民收入锐减、企业经营困难、政府财政赤字扩大等一系列挑战,给太平洋岛国的经济社会发展增添了更多不确定性风险。而脆弱的公共卫生体系,使得多数太平洋岛国即使面对小范围的疫情都会不堪重负。因此,当前在实行边境管控与谋求经济复苏之间仍存在较大冲突。当务之急,岛国必须依靠更加灵活精准的策略安排,在加强疫情防控的基础上,有效确保部分产业正常运营,协同缓解政企各方压力,从而最大限度地降低疫情对经济的短期负面影响,并为经济的长远复苏做好准备。
In 2021,the global economy has managed a “V”-shaped recovery,but the recovery of the Pacific island nations in the ocean is likely to be further complicated by continuing border closures,traffic controls and travel restrictions around the world. The persistent pressure of epidemic prevention adds up to a series of challenges,such as economic contraction,low employment,sharp drop in residents’ income,difficulties in business operation,and widening government fiscal deficit,adds more risk of uncertainty to the economic and social development of the Pacific Island countries. With a weak public health system that would overwhelm most Pacific island nations even in the face of a small outbreak of epidemic,there is still a major conflict between implement borders control and pursuing economic recovery. It is imperative that the island countries rely on more flexible and precise strategic arrangements to effectively ensure the normal operation of some industries and coordinate efforts to ease the pressure on all sides of the government and enterprises on the basis of strengthening the prevention and control of the epidemic,which will minimize the short-term negative impact of the epidemic on the economy and prepare the economy for a long-term recovery.