本报告基于全球81个主要国家的2009~2020年面板数据,使用主成分分析法构造了经济增长质量指标体系,考察了印尼的经济增长质量。研究发现:印尼虽是东盟第一大经济体,但经济增长质量方面的表现不尽如人意,低于81个样本国家的平均水平,在东盟主要经济体中的排名靠后,尤其是效率指数方面。与金砖五国对比,显著落后于中国,但与其他四国较为接近。从趋势上看,印尼经济增长的效率指数从2016年起有所提升,主要受初级产品出口占比下降以及工业化发展等因素驱动;受印尼政府经济发展政策“求稳”导向的影响,印尼经济增长稳定性指数优于部分东盟国家和中国以外的金砖国家,但在经济增长可持续性指数方面,印尼在近五年有所下降,主要受制于研发和人力资本投资不足,以及对自然资源开发的过多依赖。
Based on the panel data of 81 major countries in the world from 2009 to 2020,this paper uses the principal component analysis method to construct the economic growth quality index and investigate the economic growth quality of Indonesia. The study finds that although Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN,its performance in terms of economic growth quality is not satisfactory,which is lower than the average level of 81 sample countries and ranks low among the major ASEAN economies,especially at the aspect of efficiency index. Compared with the BRICs,it is significantly behind China,but close to the other four countries,and performance better than some ASEAN and BRICs countries at the specific aspect of economic growth stability. Regarding the trend,Indonesia’s economic growth efficiency has improved since 2016,which is mainly driven by the industrial development and decline in the proportion of primary product exports,meanwhile,the sustainability of Indonesian economic growth has decreased in the past five years due to insufficient investment in R&D and human capital and excessive dependence on natural resources.