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2021~2022年印度尼西亚经济形势

文章摘要

本报告从宏观经济整体态势、外经贸形势、产业经济动向和区域发展格局四个方面分析了2021~2022年印尼经济发展状况。报告指出新冠肺炎疫情冲击使印尼经济呈现深“V”型波动,目前势头向好,但不同区域和不同行业经济回暖存在差异。受国际大宗商品价格飙升影响,北马鲁古等有色金属资源大省经济回升较快,产业方面也体现为出口导向产业增幅较大,传统内销行业恢复缓慢。近期印尼经济面临的主要挑战是高物价和高失业率并存问题,政府为刺激经济实施了宽松货币政策和财政政策,财政赤字扩大。另外,强劲的出口复苏虽使印尼对外贸易创14年来最大顺差,但出口结构仍需向高价值的工业制造领域拓展,产业政策上也须扭转逆工业化现象。RCEP落地将为印尼工业发展和出口结构升级提供有利环境,而国际政局突变则会增加印尼经济复苏前景的不确定性。

Abstract

This report analyzes Indonesia’s economic development in the past two years from four aspects:macroeconomy,foreign trade,industrial economy and regional development. Firstly,the report points out the outbreak of COVID-19 has caused severe shocks on Indonesian macroeconomy that shows a deep “V”-shaped fluctuation. Secondly,the report finds that Indonesian economy is currently on rebounding stage as a whole,but the extent of economic recovery is different for different regions or different sectors. North Maluku and other mineral rich provinces are experiencing more rapid economic recovery then other regions,due to the soaring prices in international commodities market. As for different sectors,export-oriented industries have been rebounding faster than other sectors. However,the coexistence of high-speed inflation and high rate of unemployment,and rapid changing external environment increase the uncertainty of Indonesia macroeconomy prospect. The monetary and fiscal policies in Indonesia remains easing in order to support the economic recovery,but meanwhile triggered a notable fiscal deficit. The strong export growth has resulted a highest trade surplus in past 14 years. But for the long run,Indonesian economy needs to deal with two major issues for getting solidary growth. One is to optimize the export structure by expanding high-value industrial commodity export,and the second is to spur the manufacture sector then can reverse the de-industrialization trend. The report also suggests implementing the RCEP will help Indonesia’s manufacture sector and export structure upgrade.

作者简介
左志刚:左志刚,博士,广东外语外贸大学教授,印度尼西亚研究中心主任。