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Central Asia and the Silk Road Economic Belt

  • 作者:Kemel Toktomushev出版日期:2017年05月
  • 报告页数:3 页
  • 报告字数:9341 字所属丛书:
  • 所属图书:The Belt and Ro...
  • 浏览人数:0    下载次数:0

文章摘要

In the early 2000s Chinese-Central Asian trade was estimated around US$ 1billion,in 2010-2013 these numbers reached nearly US$50 billion.The Diplomat,9 June,[Online],Available at:http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/will-all-roads-incentral-asia-eventually-lead-to-china/ [accessed 27 Apr,2016].">[1] In a decade,China grew from providing a limited number of imports to Central Asia to providing more than 10% of the region’s total imports,while simultaneously becoming one of the main export destinations for Central Asian goods and commodities.Trends and Patterns in Foreign Trade of Central Asian Countries,Institute of Public Policy and Administration Working Paper No.1,Bishkek.">[2] It is estimated that the real numbers are even more staggering due to the significant volume of informal imports and exports.Aside from being a key trading partner,China became the region’s largest de facto lender and source of development financing. For example,China has already financed several multi-million dollar projects in Kyrgyzstan,including the construction of the Datka electricity substation and the 405-kilometer Datka-Kemin transmission line. China also agreed to a US$400 million loan to construct Kyrgyzstan’s North-South alternative road. As of 2015,Kyrgyzstan owed China approximately US$1.8 billion,which comprises nearly half of Kyrgyzstan’s total external debt. In a similar vein,the government-sponsored Export-Import Bank of China remains Tajikistan’s largest single creditor,holding almost 46% of Tajikistan’s total external debt.A Moderate Slowdown in Economic Growth Coupled with a Sharp Decline in Household Purchasing Power,Tajikistan Economic Update,no.2.">[3] Furthermore,China is well situated to act as a mediator in Central Asia:the China-Central Asia pipeline consists of three separate enterprises,each based on a 50% ownership agreement between China and Kazakhstan,China and Uzbekistan,and China and Turkmenistan(Cooley,2015). Moreover,through its China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC),China is continuing to invest significantly in the region’s transport and energy infrastructure,including the construction of the Atyrau-Alashankou crude oil pipeline.Accordingly,Central Asian leadership must revisit its approach towards China and utilise the opportunities such a neighbourhood offers in a more constructive and mutually beneficial way. Central Asian policies towards China should be pragmatic and forward looking. In this regard,the Chinese-led the Belt and Road Initiative offers an excellent opportunity for the region’s leadership to practice evidence-based decision-making and capitalise on China’s willingness to advance regional integration for the benefit of the broader population.The Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road,also known as the Belt and Road Initiative,is a Chinese-led development framework that aims to integrate trade and investment in Eurasia. Presented by President of China Xi Jinping during his official visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia in 2013,the Belt and Road Initiative is an ambitious initiative aimed at reviving the historic Silk Road in the 21st century by connecting China with Europe via Central Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,West Asia,East Africa and the Middle East. Based on implementation guidelines released by China’s National Development and Reform Commission(2015),the Belt and Road Initiative seeks to promote policy coordination,facilities connectivity,unimpeded trade,financial integration and “people-to-people bonds”.The proposed land-based Silk Road Economic Belt constitutes an infrastructure network of roads,rail and oil and gas pipelines stretched across the Eurasian continent. The Maritime Silk Road would be its proposed maritime equivalent,establishing an economic corridor through a system of linked ports and infrastructure. Once fully completed,the Belt and Road Initiative is projected to directly affect nearly 4.4 billion people with a collective GDP of US$21 trillion;The Belt and Road,Singapore:BDO Advisory Pte Ltd.">[4] Central Asia is assigned a special role in this regional architecture. President Xi Jinping visited every Central Asian state to personally reassure local leadership of the Chinese commitment by investing US$40 billion in the region’s infrastructure through the Silk Road Infrastructure Fund. The recent unveiling of the China backed US $100 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)confirms Beijing’s determination to advance its vision of regional integration. The Economist reports that China plans to spend a total of US$1 trillion in government funds through AIIB and the China Development Bank on the Belt and Road Initiative. Moreover in the summer of 2015,the credit rating agency Moody’s produced a report rating the Belt and Road Initiative as credit positive for the emerging market countries involved. Specifically,Moody’s predicts that the Chinese-led initiative will mostly benefit smaller countries with underdeveloped infrastructure,low per-capita incomes and low investment rates,as President of China Xi Jinping expects trade via the modern Silk Road to surpass US$2.5 trillion in a decade.Accordingly,the following policy recommendations are suggested for both the governments of Central Asian states and the Chinese government,with the aim of capitalising on China’s role in the region through more pragmatic and mutually beneficial engagement.

Abstract

In the early 2000s Chinese-Central Asian trade was estimated around US$ 1billion,in 2010-2013 these numbers reached nearly US$50 billion.In a decade,China grew from providing a limited number of imports to Central Asia to providing more than 10% of the region’s total imports,while simultaneously becoming one of the main export destinations for Central Asian goods and commodities. It is estimated that the real numbers are even more staggering due to the significant volume of informal imports and exports.
作者简介
Kemel Toktomushev:Research Fellow,Institute of Public Policy and Administration,University of Central Asia,Kyrgyz Republic