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Philippines-China Trade,Economic C...

文章摘要

This paper will discuss the economic relationship between the Philippines and China.Table 1 shows a little demographic and economic perspective of the Philippines’ relation to China. In terms of land area,the Philippines is less than 5 percent of China. In population,the Philippines is less than 10 percent. The Philippines’ GDP is less than 5 percent of China and growing slower. As percentage of GDP,the agriculture is about the same as China but the Philippines’ industrial subsector is less by about 10 percent. The Philippines’ services subsector is about the same as China. Its GDP per capita is way below that of China while inflation rate is about the same. These give an indication that the Philippines is inferior to the Chinese economy in many aspects.In terms of Philippines’ trade with China,its growth has been erratic over time,negative in some years,and positive in others(Table 2). In terms of percentage share to total Philippine trade,the Philippines’ trade with China borders around 10 percent but is growing over time.Table 3 it shows you some trade statistics of the Philippines. Japan is the Philippines’ main trading partner. But China is a close second. However,the Philippines has a negative balance of trade with China for 2015. But over the years,you would see that China has become a significant trading partner of the Philippines economy.Table 4 shows you that China is ranked fourth among the countries where Philippines exports to. The Philippines exports electronic products to China,mainly components of the final electronic products that China produces,mineral products,and others like chemicals.In terms of imports,China is the top source of imports of the Philippines. The Philippines imports from China mainly electronic products(Table 5). If you go to Manila,for instance,there are a lot of China made cell phones for one sold in the markets. That,I’m sure,is the same in many other countries. The Philippines also imports from China iron and steel and other products.Now the data over time will tell you that the Philippines’ trading relationship with China was not really much in the early years(Figure 1). But since former President Ramos came in,it started to pick up. While the Philippines’ exports to China have been erratic,for some time up and down,the imports has been quite consistently going up.In the case of ASEAN countries,just for a little backgrounder,you will see from 2011 to 2015 China exports to Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,even Thailand and Vietnam,in a very significant way(Figure 2). The Philippines is just 6th in the list. It goes to show that relative to other countries,the Philippines is yet not in the main radar of China.China’s imports from ASEAN countries is just about the same(Figure 3). The Philippines is also 6th here,better only compared to Laos,Cambodia and Brunei. Again trade between China and the Philippines is really not that much yet compared to other ASEAN countries.China’s foreign direct investment in the Philippines is also low relative to other ASEAN countries(Table 4). Although data are not presented here,it is a fact that the Philippines has a higher FDI to China than China to us.Table 6 shows us the total official development assistance for the Philippines. The Philippines has here China only in eleventh place. However,in terms of ODA loans,China is an important source for the Philippines(Table 7). In addition to some countries,some international development institutions are sources of both assistance and loans.The number of bilateral agreements between the Philippines and China has picked up during the time of former President Arroyo in the mid-200s,particularly 2005(Figure 5). Also,there were different areas in the Philippines’ bilateral agreements with China. The first was trade,investment,and finance(Figure 6). The Philippines has a bilateral agreement also in agriculture and other aspects of the economy. There were 31 bilateral agreements during the term of former president Arroyo compared to lower numbers during the previous and succeeding national administrations individually(Figure 7).Last 20th October,2016,there was a thawing of the cold relations between Philippines and China. Newly elected President Rodrigo R. Duterte came to China and signed 83 agreements with the Chinese government(List 1). These are in different aspects of the economy. It is worth noting that part of these is the agreement between the Philippines’ coast guards to look into the situation of the South China Sea in terms of monitoring. Another critical one is the agreement on narcotics which is a major concern of the Philippines because the Philippines has a drug war at present. The Philippines would like to have China join us in this effort because China is perceived as the main source of illegal narcotics for the Philippines. The Philippines also likes to promote the Philippines’ tourism. The Philippines is considering opening up the Philippines Laoag International Airport in the north of the Philippines so that Chinese people and others can potentially come in without visa.In the case of my institute,the Philippines is a government corporation which does economic research. So if there is going to be collaboration,it will be along the lines of economic issue. Lately the Philippines wants to concentrate more the Philippines’ researches on issues related to the resiliency of economic systems in the Philippines and ASEAN.In conclusion,allow me to quote the following:“The South China Sea dispute is not the sum total of the Philippines’ relations with China. The Philippines can deal with it separately,but at the same time the Philippines can develop and strengthen the Philippines’ other areas of cooperation with China including trade,investment,tourism,people-to-people exchanges.” This is an official statement of the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines.In addition to the above mentioned statement,this current presentation asserts that the cooperation in research,particularly in the field of economic and policy analysis,can be actively explored by China and the Philippines as well. The coverage of this research may expand from the bilateral into the multilateral involving other countries,including those outside the ASEAN.Now the Philippines is not covered by the Maritime Silk Road. In the next few years,whether China can extend that line a bit to touch Manila or Davao as well. Table 1 Key Demographic and Economic Indicators,Philippines and China,2015 Table 1 Key Demographic and Economic Indicators,Philippines and China,2015-Continued Table 2 Philippine Trade Performance with China,2006-2015(Million US $,FOB) Table 3 Philippine Major Trading Partners,2015(Million US $,FOB) Table 3 Philippine Major Trading Partners,2015(Million US $,FOB)-Continued Table 4 Philippine Exports to Major Trading Partners,2015(Million US $,FOB) Table 5 Philippine Imports from Major Trading Partners,2015(Million US $,FOB) Figure 1 Philippines’ Exports to and Imports from China,1975-2015 Figure 2 China’s Exports to ASEAN Countries,2011-2015 Figure 3 China’s Imports from ASEAN Countries,2011-2015 Figure 4 Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN countries,2003,2008 & 2013 Figure 5 Number of Bilateral Agreements between Philippines and China,1975-2015 Table 6 Total Official Development Assistance to Philippines by Development Partners,as of December 2014(Million US$)

Abstract

This paper will discuss the economic relationship between the Philippines and China. In terms of land area,the Philippines is less than 5 percent of China. In population,the Philippines is less than 10 percent. The Philippines’ GDP is less than 5 percent of China and growing slower. As percentage of GDP,the agriculture is about the same as China but the Philippines’ industrial subsector is less by about 10 percent. The Philippines’ services subsector is about the same as China. Its GDP per capita is way below that of China while inflation rate is about the same. These give an indication that the Philippines is inferior to the Chinese economy in many aspects.
作者简介
Dr. Danilo C. Israel:Senior Research Fellow,Philippine Institute for Development Studies