Geo-economic Aspects of the Influe...
文章摘要
The current world order, the system of international relations, the problems of ecology and security of human community indicate a need to find another way of development. The new path of development should be sustainable, such that it should not create problems that would have to be solved by future generations. In this regard, the Asian civilization, which presents prospects for peaceful development, plays a special role. It consists in the pursuit of the new philosophy of the development and the formation of a strategy for the development of completely new world order.In the current Asian civilization, the region of Central Asia has special geo-economic and geopolitical importance. Central Asia occupies a vast territory located in the central part of Eurasia, which has no direct access to the world’s oceans. However, the geographical remoteness of Central Asia from the seas and oceans does not mean its apartness from existing global problems and threats. Central Asia evokes geo-economic and geopolitical interests in four regions of Eurasia at once: Middle East, Asia-Pacific, South Asia, and Europe.Central Asia, consisting of such states as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, connects Europe, Middle East, and South and East Asia. The transit and communication routes are located here, as well as the existence of common cultural, historical and economic ties and mutual interests both between Central Asian and its neighboring countries, are the main factors to succeed in strengthening inter-regional integration processes throughout the whole Asia.Another main contribution of Central Asia to the Asian civilization is that the Great Silk Road, which crossed here, promoted the mutual exchange of tangible and intangible values, such as experience, progress and scientific achievements of the peoples of this region. Nevertheless, on the modern historical path of its development for the countries of the world economy, Central Asia is of big interest only as a supplier of raw materials, primarily oil, gas, coal and metals, as well as agricultural products.Central Asia has huge reserves of oil and gas. Such that, the total volume of oil reserves in the Central Asian countries is about 2% (30 billion of barrels) of world oil resources and more than 10% (20 trillion of cubic meters) of gas resources. The region ranks 10th in coal production among countries of the world, 19th century - in electricity generation. It accounts for large reserves of ferrous, non-ferrous and rare metals.At the same time, it is noteworthy that Central Asia, being in the center of the Eurasian continent, is able to concentrate the system of future transit corridors to increase the flow of goods and capital between the global manufacturing centers of Asia and Europe.It should be noted that at present in Central Asia fundamentally new favorable conditions are being formed for strengthening and developing regional cooperation. And in this process, an important role is played by modern Uzbekistan where large-scale socio-economic transformations have been carried out. It is worthy of respect that because of Uzbekistan: the volume of mutual trade between the Central Asian countries has recently increased; key transport system ways have been restored and modernized; free movement across borders has been ensured, cross-border cooperation among Central Asian countries has been expanded, contacts between business representatives and the population of adjacent territories have been revived, etc.Uzbekistan’s proactive approach to rapprochement with the Central Asian states, establishing good neighborly and friendly relations with them, removing trade and transport barriers creates a strong and reliable foundation for integration and cooperation not only with the countries of the region, but also with other countries of the world, including Asia.Despite the achievements, a number of problems remain which hindering the expansion of regional and interregional cooperation throughout the whole Asia.1) Central Asia still does not present a single economic space. Thus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while Uzbekistan establishing cooperation and interaction with the countries of the region on a bilateral basis. So, it requires coordination of the formats of interaction to solve common problems not only in the sphere of trade and economic development, but also in the field of sharing of water and energy, of transportation systems running through the territories of the countries.2) In all Central Asian countries, the volume of processing of agricultural products remains very low, such that its share does not reach even 10% in the total volume of production of agriculture goods (in advanced countries this figure equals to 50%). In the export of agriculture goods of Uzbekistan fruit and vegetable products prevail.3) The industrial progress and further development of the Central Asian countries are hampered by the small scale of their economies, technological backwardness, and the problems of weak corporate governance. As a result, the share of the industrial production in the GDP of all countries of Central Asia does not actually grow (with some exceptions). As a result, the level of migration mobility in the region remains high, due to the insufficient creation of new jobs.4) Currently, enterprises in most of the Central Asian countries that specialize in the production of non-primary goods are mainly oriented on narrow internal markets of the region. In addition, the share of foreign direct investments in the structure of enterprises is also very low. All this does not allow these enterprises to introduce modern high-productive technologies, to load fully and to expand their production capacities, and consequently, to use the benefits of narrow specialization and economy of scale. Meanwhile, as it is well known, modern technologies, narrow specialization and economies of scale are the main sources for increasing competitiveness in economics.5) Despite the fact that Central Asian countries have unique touristic facilities and an enormous potential for the development of the tourism industry, the share of tourism in the countries’ GDP equal only 5.5%, with an average global value equal to 10.4%.Thus, in 2017, the total number of tourists visited Central Asian countries increased by 20.5% (in comparison with 2016), and amounted to 12.2 million of people, and revenues from international tourism consisted more than $ 3.3 billion. At the same time, about 90% of the tourists are from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and 10% from other countries, mainly European.In addition to the above problems, Central Asian countries are very vulnerable to exogenous (external) factors. Moreover, this influence increases year by year. In our opinion, this may be associated with the following challenges.1) The countries heavily dependent on the export of raw materials most rapidly grew in the past. However, over time, this has led to the lag of these countries in structural changes and has brought to serious economic and social problems. In this regard, it is expected that in order to overcome the problems, the resource-specialized countries in the future will invest more in processing industries, which finally will lead to the diversification of their economies.The main risks for the countries of Central Asia consist of such ones as expected tightening of global financial conditions in capital markets, deterioration of external financing conditions, capital outflows and a reduction in investment inflows. Central Asian countries currently accumulate only 0.02% of foreign direct investment (FDI), with a fairly modest share of the region in the production of global GDP - about 0.3%.At the same time, most of FDI in Central Asian countries (from 50% to 80%) directed to raw materials extraction industries, including oil and gas, metals, minerals, to geological exploration, services related to mining, metallurgy, to some processing of oil and gas.2) All Central Asian countries are somehow integrated into the world economy. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are engaged in trade and economic relations with more than 170 countries, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan with about 110 countries, including economic superpowers. In the region, there are transnational companies playing a significant role in determining the situation on international markets. Consequently, any global financial and economic processes occurring in the world will somehow influence the socio-economic situation in central Asian countries.3) The economies of the countries of Central Asia are not fully self-sufficient. In the structure of their economies, agro-raw material or fuel-and-raw material orientation prevails. Therefore, in the socio-economic development of the countries, great importance belongs to foreign economic relations.Major foreign trade partners of almost all of the countries of the region are Russia, China, Turkey, Iran. For example, Russia’s share in the total foreign trade of Tajikistan is more than 23%, Kyrgyzstan - about 20%, and Uzbekistan - 18%. Russia accounts for 37% of the total imports to Kazakhstan. In addition, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the EAEU and closely integrated with the economy of Russia.China also significantly strengthens its economic presence in Central Asia and its the Belt and Road Initiative will further expand the cooperation. As expected, the volume of mutual trade will increase, the transport infrastructure will be modernized, and business and cultural ties of China with Central Asian countries will be increased.However, trade wars and sanctions put by major world powers, including the countries that are the main economic partners of the Central Asian states, can adversely affect the economies of the countries. In addition, monetary policy is tightened in both the USA and the eurozone. This leads to capital outflows from emerging markets, which may exacerbate the structural problems of these countries.4) As high technologies more and more have begun to crowd out traditional production, it is expected that many sectors of the economy will soon undergo serious transformations. Moreover, the form, methods and geography of production will change, and the centers of value-added concentration will change. Production is expected to become less energy-intensive and less material-intensive, and less labor-intensive, and the use of cheap labor will be reduced. Under these conditions, the role of industrial and resource led countries, such as Central Asian countries, will decrease, and the role of those countries which occupy advanced scientific-technological, and high-tech niches will further increase.5) An increase in the production of high-tech and costly products will entail an increase in the concentration of highly qualified personnel. And in the present we already can see that their systematic reproduction is concentrated in advanced countries. In this regard, the Central Asian countries face serious challenges in the formation of intellectual resources (education, applied and fundamental scientific schools), in attracting of FDI, of capital and technology, in creating their own technological chains, in increasing economic stability.In order for the Central Asian countries to successfully confront the above identified challenges, it is necessary to strengthen regional and international cooperation in Asia as a whole. This requires a transition to a fundamentally new model of economic growth, as well as deepening of cooperation at the macro, micro and regional levels. Consequently, the future economic development of the Central Asian countries will entirely depend on how they can integrate into regional value chains. The new model of economic growth, the effective use of the potential of regional and international cooperation of the Central Asian countries, the deepening of cooperation in Asia as a whole will depend on the successful implementation of the following measures.1) Elimination of trade barriers and creation of a favorable legal regime for the establishment and strengthening of direct cooperation of Central Asian countries with such major Asian economic giants as China, Japan, South Korea, etc. A sharp increase of trade turnover between Asian countries can be achieved by radical trade facilitation, simplifying export procedures, import operations, elimination of barriers in mutual trade, development of financial and banking operations. For this, it seems appropriate to develop a conceptual framework of investment cooperation among Asian countries.2) Development of direct partnerships between entrepreneurs of Asian countries, development of a simple and affordable mechanism for the transportation of goods, creation of new transport corridors. In order to integrate effectively into large-scale continental transport corridors, Central Asian countries need to modernize and develop transport infrastructure, harmonize national transport legislation, create powerful logistic systems for managing trade flows between Europe and Asia. In this regard, we consider it expedient to hold the annual “Economic Forum of Asian Countries” with the participation of scientists, practitioners and business representatives.3) Central Asian countries need to reduce the number of small enterprises producing a wide range of products and focuse mainly on domestic markets. In the future, the competitiveness of the Central Asian countries can be increased only by large specialized companies operating at least in the markets of Asia. For this, it is necessary to expand production cooperation, create international clusters in the manufacturing sector and in the tourism industry, form logistics centers for joint promotion of the export goods to world markets.4) Creation of fundamentally new forms of cooperation in the digital economy, introduction of advanced information and communication technologies that can ensure the coordinated regulation in e-commerce, customs and tax laws, logistics, foreign exchange operations, as well as in sharing of electronic money turnover.5) Accelerating development of the tourism industry and cooperation in this area. According to experts’ estimations, each dollar of direct travel expenses for tourism services generates about three additional dollars in related industries. For many foreign tourists, tours involving several Asian countries can be more attractive. As, for example, in Europe a tourist, if desired, can visit several European countries at once.Cooperation in the field of tourism, drawing up new tourist routes to visit several Asian countries at once, selling a joint tourist product set, introducing a single Silk Road visa for tourists traveling around the Silk Road countries - all this will contribute to an increase of tourist flows to the countries of the region. This requires the development of a concept for the development of inter-regional tourism in Asia.6) Increase the number of FDI into an agro-industrial sector of the Central Asian countries. It is possible that in future the growth of the demographic pressure in Asian countries, the next possible regional and global economic crises will once again lead to the aggravation of the problem of food security, both in the region and in the world as well. In this regard, we consider the Central Asian countries are necessary to switch to a fundamentally new model of development of the agro-industrial complex. The first step in this direction can be the creation of joint agroclusters that ensure the full production cycle from growing in the field to processing and supplying agricultural products in world markets, especially in such capacious ones as European. Such projects will both enhance food security, and serve as an impetus for an increase in foreign direct investment in the industry, modern technologies, foreign exchange earnings, etc.In addition, joint research in the field of improving the efficiency of agriculture sector through an application of innovative technologies, the development of a cluster system for the production and processing of agricultural products, etc. can facilitate the development of the cooperation in this area.7) Implementation of joint projects on the basis of public-private partnership (PPP), implementation of mutual investments and joint involvement of international financial institutions in participation in such projects. This will contribute to the effective implementation of interregional and international projects in priority areas. In this regard, it seems expedient to study and discuss in depth the issue of creating interstate free economic zones in Asia with the provision of broad benefits for investors.In conclusion, it should be noted that the implementation of the above mentioned measures will contribute to the qualitative economic growth of Central Asian countries and other Asian countries as well, the emergence of new integration ties and expansion of economic cooperation in the region. As a result, this will lead to the emergence of a new Asian renaissance, which once served the development and interweaving of world civilizations. The further fate and development of Asia at the junction of the dilemma between geo-economics and geopolitics imply the effective use both of cultural, spatial, material, the spiritual similarity of the countries of the region, and of the consistent implementation of high-quality economic transformations and the establishment of strong business partnerships.
Abstract
The current world order, the system of international relations, the problems of ecology and security of human community indicate a need to find another way of development. The new path of development should be sustainable, such that it should not create problems that would have to be solved by future generations. In this regard, the Asian civilization, which presents prospects for peaceful development, plays a special role. It consists in the pursuit of the new philosophy of the development and the formation of a strategy for the development of completely new world order.
作者简介
Sharofiddin Nazarov:Director-General, Center for Economic Research, Uzbekistan