海洋经济发展示范区对于中国海洋经济高质量发展具有重要的现实意义，港口建设是海洋经济发展示范区新旧动能转换、海洋产业升级和对外贸易的主要实现途径。分析预测港口的建设水平和发展趋势对于完成海洋经济发展示范区的目标定位具有重要的现实意义。本文通过货物吞吐量表征港口建设水平，建立分数阶灰色模型作为预测途径，以三大海洋经济圈划分示范区类别，对“十四五”期间的示范区港口进行了讨论分析。研究发现，未来海洋经济发展示范区港口可以划分为三种状态，即停滞期、转型期和上升期。港口建设水平受到新冠病毒感染疫情和示范区目标定位的双重影响。
The marine economic development demonstration zone has important practical significance for the high-quality development of my country’s marine economy. The port is the main way to realize the transformation of old and new kinetic energy，the upgrading of the marine industry and foreign trade in the marine economic development demonstration zone. Analyzing and predicting the construction level and development trend of the port has important practical significance for completing the target positioning of the marine economic development demonstration area. In this paper，the port construction level is characterized by cargo throughput，a fractional gray model is established as a prediction method，and the demonstration area is divided into three major marine economic circles，and the ports in the demonstration area during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period are discussed and analyzed. The results of the study found that the ports in the future marine economic development demonstration zone can be divided into three states：stagnation period，transition period and rising period. The level of port construction is affected by both the COVID-19 pandemic and the target positioning of the demonstration zone.
| Keywords： | Port ConstructionMarine Economic Development Demonstration ZoneFractional Grey ModelMarine Economic CircleShoreline Resources |
