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新常态下2014~2015年河南省旅游经济运行状况与发展趋势预测

文章摘要

受新常态经济的影响,2014年河南省旅游经济亦表现出中国新常态经济特有的增速回落走势。国内旅游、出境旅游和入境旅游三大市场呈现出“总量增长,增速放缓”的态势,与全国其他省市区相比,国内旅游收入居第3位,前几年的高速增长在很大程度上得益于人口红利在省内游和国内游中的集中释放,达到一定基数后,必将放慢增速,持续中速增长;入境旅游受益于前期基数小和9月份郑州机场开放的“落地签证”政策的影响,保持了6%的增速,总量居全国第25位;出境旅游得益于人均GDP逐年升高,接近6000美元,正是出境旅游与人口红利叠加的高峰期,为延续中速增长态势创造了条件。预计,2015年河南旅游经济将延续2014年旅游经济发展的阶段性特征,可以概括为:河南旅游产业将持续全面中速增长,旅游产业增长速度高于全省国民经济增长速度,高于全国旅游产业平均增长速度;旅游综合收入增长速度高于游客数量增长速度。预计,今后相当长的一段时期内,这种“新”变化将成为河南旅游经济发展的“常态”,为河南旅游产业发展带来新的机遇,为适应新常态,使其成为河南旅游经济可持续发展的基础,提出提升旅游发展质量、科学引导旅游投资、重视文化的传承与保护、促进旅游与社会全面融合发展等政策建议。

Abstract

Affected by the new normal economy,tourism economy in Henan province in 2014 also showed China’s new normal economy unique growth trend down. Domestic tourism,outbound tourism and inbound tourism— the three big markets showing a “total growth slowdown” posture,compared with other provinces in the country,domestic tourism income is in the third position,the high-speed growth in previous years due to the demographic dividend on the release in the tour of the province and the country in the swim in,reach a certain base,is bound to slow growth,sustained moderate growth;inbound tourism benefit from early small base and the September Zhengzhou airport open “landing visa”,showing negative growth in national circumstances,to maintain the growth of 6%,but the total ranked twenty-fifth;Outbound tourism due to the per capita GDP increased year by year,nearly MYM6000. It is outbound tourism and the demographic dividend superposing peak,medium growth trend will continue. Expect the phase characteristics of the 2015 Henan tourism economy will continue in 2014 tourism economic development,can be summarized as:the growth rate of Henan tourism industry will continue full speed growth,the growth rate of tourism industry is higher than the rate of economic growth of the province,higher than the national average growth rate of tourism industry;tourism comprehensive income growth rate higher than the growth rate of the number of visitors. Is expected in the future for a long period of time,this “new” change will be the development of Henan’s tourism economy in the “normal” to adapt the new normal,make it become the foundation of Henan tourism economy sustainable development,put forward the policy recommendations.

作者简介
任瀚:任瀚,博士,郑州大学旅游管理学院教授,河南旅游咨询网特聘专家。