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河南省居民消费价格指数走势分析与预测

文章摘要

作为经济发展的“晴雨表”,河南省居民消费价格指数的走势既遵从了全国物价变动的大趋势,又呈现出明显的区域特征。2013年,受经济发展外部环境好转有限、需求不足和投资增长乏力等多方面因素的影响,河南省CPI增速呈现出先下降后微弱上升的态势,基本维持在2.6%的水平。进入2014年,河南省CPI上涨压力明显减弱,同比涨幅持续回落,与全国相比,河南省居民消费价格指数的变化呈现出“波动大”的特点,这一特点主要是由河南省经济发展水平以及经济结构的内在特征所决定的。2014年第四季度和2015年,在经济运行缓中趋稳的背景下,河南省居民消费价格指数不会出现明显上升,预计2014年四季度同比涨幅将维持在1.9%左右;2015年,在“三期叠加”的背景下,CPI涨幅会小幅回升至2.2%左右。

Abstract

As the “barometer” of the economic development,the trend of consumer price index of Henan province not only complies with the trend of the price changes,but also shows the obvious regional characteristics. In 2013,affected by the economic development of the external environment,the lack of demand and investment growth is weak and other factors,the present situation of Henan CPI growth rate decreased firstly and then showed slight rising,and maintained at 2.6%. Entering 2014,the rising pressure of Henan province CPI decreased significantly,and going up continuously fall after a rise. Compared with the national,Henan province consumer price index shows. the characteristics of “big fluctuation”,that is mainly determined by the level of economic development of Henan province and the economic structure in the future. At the background of stabilized in the economic operation,Henan province consumer price index does not appear obvious rise in the fourth quarter of 2014 and 2015,and expected the fourth quarter will be maintained at about 1.9%. In 2015,in the “three periods” in the context of superposition,CPI inflation will rise to about 2.2%.

作者简介
蔡玉平:蔡玉平,郑州大学商学院教授,副院长。
高慧清:高慧清,经济学博士,郑州大学商学院讲师。