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河南省居民消费价格指数走势分析与预测

文章摘要

河南省居民消费价格走势既遵从了全国物价变动的基本态势,又呈现出明显的区域特征。2012年以来,随着经济增长速度回落,河南省CPI指数增速呈现出先下降后微弱上升的态势,较长时间维持在3%以内。进入2013年,虽然物价水平各月份有所波动,但整体上呈小幅上升态势。与全国相比,河南省居民消费价格指数的变化呈现出“上升早、波动大、涨幅高”等特点,这一特点主要是由于河南省经济发展的水平以及经济结构特征所决定的。2013年第四季度以及2014年,河南省居民消费价格走势整体上呈现缓慢上升态势,但涨幅不会太大。预计2013年全年居民消费价格指数涨幅在3.5%以内,2014年会上升到4%左右。针对河南省居民消费价格缓慢上升趋势,省委、省政府应高度重视,采取切实可行措施,在促进经济稳定快速增长同时,最大限度地舒缓居民消费价格指数上涨压力。

Abstract

The consumer price in Henan province not only complies with the basic situation of the national price changes but also presents the obvious regional characteristics.Along with the dropping economic growth rate,the CPI growth in Henan province has shown a tendency of the faint ascent after the descent and maintains within 3% for a long time since 2012.Although the price level has some fluctuate in 2013,it appears overall a slight increasing.Compared with the national consumer price,the consumer price changes in Henan province have these characteristics such as rising early,large fluctuations,high gains,which are mainly due to the economic development level and the characteristics of the economic structure in Henan province.In The fourth quarter of 2013 and 2014 consumer price movements in Henan province will either face the upward momentum or have a downward pressure and the consumer price index has a slow rise on the whole,while the rising trend is not too high.In 2013 CPI rises within 3.5% and will probably reach to 4% by the year 2014.In light of the slow rise in the consumer price index of Henan province,the province government should pay more attention to take some feasible measures to promote the steady and fastness of the economic growth and at the same time relieve the increasing CPI stress in maximum.
作者简介
蔡玉平:男,河南虞城人,经济学硕士,郑州大学商学院教授、副院长,主要从事宏观经济形势和政策、财政金融理论和商业银行经营管理等领域的研究和教学。
王磊玲:王磊玲,管理学博士,郑州大学商学院讲师,主要从事农村金融领域的研究。