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2020~2021年河南省居民消费价格走势分析

文章摘要

2020年1~8月,受国内外经济形势以及新冠肺炎疫情影响,全省CPI整体呈现高位下降态势,同比上涨3.8%。本轮CPI上涨结构性特征十分明显,食品类尤其是猪肉价格上涨是核心推动力,初步判断2020年全省CPI涨幅在3.5%左右。总体预计2021年河南省CPI呈现先高后低走势,同比涨幅不会超过3.0%,物价总水平将回归正常轨道。最后,本文提出了加强农副产品疫病防治及监管、加强“菜篮子”价格监测和反馈体系的建设、着力推进乡村产业振兴等政策建议,以促进居民消费价格平稳运行。

Abstract

From January to August 2020,affected by the domestic and international economic situation and the COVID-19 epidemic,the CPI level of the whole province showed a high decline,up 3.8% over the same period. The CPI in this round has risen significantly with obvious structural characteristics. The rise in the price of food,especially pork,is the core driving force. It is preliminarily estimated that the CPI increase in 2020 will be about 3.5%. Overall,it is estimated that CPI in Henan Province will show a trend of high first and then low in 2021,with a year-on-year increase of no more than 3.0%,and the general price level will return to normal track. Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as strengthening the prevention and control of agricultural and sideline products diseases,strengthening the construction of “vegetable basket” price monitoring and feedback system,and promoting the revitalization of rural industries,so as to promote the smooth operation of consumer prices.

作者简介
袁金星:袁金星,河南省社会科学院经济研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为国民经济、科技经济。