2015年，各级政府的“十三五”规划都在紧锣密鼓地进行，其中最基本、最重要的环节就是人口规划，而人口规划的基础是人口预测。在新时期进行安徽省人口预测必须充分考虑人口政策带来的影响，其中2016年实施“全面二孩”政策必然对“十三五”期间的人口各个要素产生影响。本报告在分析过去人口规律的前提下，采用队列因素法，预测未来15年的人口状况，并对结果进行分析。安徽省在1995年“人口红利”窗口开启，2020年关闭；“十三五”末期将面临严峻的婚姻积压社会问题；人口老龄化要到2030年才显得特别严峻；即将出台的退休政策对安徽省劳动力人口数的影响较小。
Governments at all levels are now actively proceeding with the 13th Five-Year Plan，among which demographic planning constitutes the most fundamental and important aspect，while the foundation of demographic planning is demographic forecast. To carry out demographic forecast of Anhui Province in the new era，we must fully consider the impact of demographic policies，among which the policy of “second kid for everyone” launched in 2016 will inevitably exert influences on all demographic factors during the 13th Five-Year period. Based on analysis of previous demographic patterns，this study adopts the cohort component method for demographic forecasts in the next 15 years，along with result analysis. The window for demographic dividend opened in 1995，and will close in 2020；accumulated social problems concerning marriage will become acute at the end of the 13th Five-Year period；aging population will not become a severe issue until 2030；and the forthcoming retirement policy will have a relatively little impact on the number of labor population in Anhui Province.
