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2021年上海服务“一带一路”建设数据报告

文章摘要

本报告以数据分析为基础,以量化视角评估上海在2021年与共建“一带一路”国家的经贸合作态势。结合长三角一体化发展战略的背景,本报告将上海在2021年服务“一带一路”建设的情况与江苏、浙江、安徽三个长三角其他省份进行比较分析。此外,本报告还采用系统的模型分析方法讨论上海与共建“一带一路”国家的经贸往来和共建“一带一路”国家内部发展的互动关系。报告发现,2021年上海与共建“一带一路”国家的总体贸易情况呈现显著复苏、平稳上升的态势。在上海对外贸易与投资格局中,共建“一带一路”国家的重要性都在显著上升。与长三角其他省份相比,上海与共建“一带一路”国家的经贸合作具有以进口为主的特征,表明上海的国际消费中心的地位在其服务“一带一路”建设中发挥了更为重要的作用。而通过回归分析与矩阵模型分析可发现,共建“一带一路”国家内部的经济发展维度和政府治理维度与上海和共建“一带一路”国家的贸易额有显著的正相关关系,产业结构维度与稳定程度维度则与上海和共建“一带一路”国家的贸易额无统计学上的正相关关系。这表明未来上海须重视其服务“一带一路”建设与共建“一带一路”国家产业升级的影响,并关注相应国家内部安全风险对上海服务“一带一路”建设的冲击。

Abstract

This report evaluates the situation of economic and trade cooperation between Shanghai and the BRI countries in 2021 from the perspective of data analysis,which focus on the regional comparison between Shanghai and other provinces in the Yangtze River Delta in serving the BRI construction. It also discusses the interactive relationship between the economic and trade exchanges between Shanghai and the BRI partner countries and the internal development of the BRI countries through systematic model analysis. The report finds that the trade situation generally shows a clear recovery and steady upward trend between Shanghai and the BRI countries in 2021. The importance of the BRI countries is rising significantly in Shanghai’s foreign trade and investment pattern. In the Yangtze River Delta,the economic and trade cooperation between Shanghai and the BRI co-building countries is also in the leading position,and shows the characteristics of the majority of imports,indicating that the status of Shanghai as an international consumption center is playing a more crucial role in serving the BRI of Shanghai. Through a respective analysis of a regression and a matrix model,the indications of economic development and the governance performance within the BRI Countries show a significant positive relationship in trade volume with Shanghai,while the industrial structure and stability are statistically irrelevant with above trade volume. This also reveals that Shanghai should pour attention to the impact of serving the BRI Countries national industrial upgrading in the future,and concern about the impact of internal security risks of the relevant countries.

作者简介
周亦奇:周亦奇,上海国际问题研究院比较政治与公共政策研究所博士、副研究员;研究方向为国际政治、“一带一路”建设。