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2021年多重困境中的马来西亚国家韧性发展

文章摘要

马来西亚自2018年5月第14届全国大选实现历史上第一次政党轮替之后,进入国家发展的转型期。迄今,马来西亚还经历了三次政府更迭、新冠肺炎疫情冲击、美国不断加大对华战略挤压、缅甸政局突变、俄乌冲突爆发等多重困境,这给马来西亚的国家治理、地区合作,以及参与全球事务带来巨大挑战。马来西亚政府为应对多重困境采取了种种措施,有的成功,有的失败,但总体成效并不如想象的那样悲观,至少保住了国家稳定的基本盘,维护了地区和国际地位,体现出多重危机治理的“国家韧性”。本报告梳理了近4年来马来西亚面临的多重困境及其应对措施,分析了所获成效及其背后的国家韧性问题。马来西亚的国家韧性是由其官僚机制、政党合作和民众认同的共同作用所决定的,并受到族群政治、体制劣势、腐败问题和妥协政治等因素影响,存在一定风险。笔者认为,这一研究有助于理解东盟国家的韧性以及未来东盟区域秩序变迁。

Abstract

Since the 14th general election in May 2018 achieved the first political party rotation in history,Malaysia has entered a transitional period of national development. During this period,Malaysia also experienced multiple dilemmas such as three government changes,the COVID-19 pandemic,intensified strategic competition between China and the United States,the coup in Myanmar,and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,which brought huge challenges to Malaysia’s national governance,regional cooperation,and participation in global affairs. The Malaysian government has taken various measures to deal with multiple difficulties,some of which have been successful and some have failed,but the overall results are not as pessimistic as imagined. At least,Malaysia has maintained the fundamentals of national stability,and also its status in regional and international platforms,which shows the “National Resilience” in managing multiple dilemmas. This report sorts out the multiple dilemmas faced by Malaysia in the past nearly four years and its countermeasures,and analyzes its effectiveness and the national resilience problem behind it. Malaysia’s national resilience is determined by its bureaucratic mechanism,political party cooperation and public recognition,and is affected by factors such as ethnic politics,institutional weaknesses,corruption issues and compromise politics,and there are certain risks. Authors believe that this study is helpful for understanding the resilience of ASEAN countries and the future changes in the ASEAN regional order.

作者简介
翟崑:翟崑,博士,北京大学国际关系学院国际政治系教授、博士生导师,北京大学区域与国别研究院副院长、全球互联互通研究中心主任,主要研究方向为东南亚和亚太问题、世界政治和国际战略问题。
粟琳:粟琳,北京外国语大学亚洲学院马来语专业本科生,主要研究方向为马来西亚社会和跨文化交际。