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2021年马来西亚经济形势

文章摘要

2021年,在新冠肺炎疫情逐步得到缓解的大背景下,马来西亚经济呈现复苏趋势,年初经济有所提振,第二季度实现强势反弹,前6个月实现经济增长7.1%,但第三季度受到严格的疫情管控措施等负面因素的拖累,经济收缩4.5%,第四季度再度回暖,扭转了下行趋势,最终全年实现增长3.1%。居民收入和消费的恢复性增长在纾困政策助力和管控政策放松的共同作用下,推动了市场需求增长,使经济重启。各行业均实现不同程度的正向增长,尤以制造业反弹最为迅猛。外部需求表现较为强劲,推动进出口显著增长,其中受益于电子产品、精炼石油、棕榈油及化学产品出口的强劲增长,出口增长26%至1.2万亿林吉特,创史上新高。私人消费和投资明显回暖,政府持续投入以保障民生,但企业投资不振。货币政策持续保持宽松,通货膨胀较为缓和。经常账户保持盈余,外债风险可控。随着疫苗接种覆盖率提升,疫情逐步得到控制,政府对人员流动的限制逐渐放宽,劳动力市场逐步复苏。国内消费和外部需求预期在2022年继续回暖,尽管疫情及国际局势的扰动因素仍在,但基本经济预期较为乐观。

Abstract

Against the background of the gradual easing of the impact of the pandemic,Malaysian economy demonstrated moderate and uneven recovery in 2021. In the first six months,the economy has grown by 7.1%,with a strong start at the beginning of the year and a significant rebound in the second quarter. However,the economy contracted by 4.5% due to tightened pandemic control rules in the third quarter. It recovered again in the fourth quarter,reversing the downward trend and achieved an annual overall growth of 3.1%. Thanks to the combined effects of bailout policies and the relaxation of the control measures,household income and consumption rebounded and led to increase in market demand. All industries achieved positive growth to varying degrees,in particular,the manufacturing industry. Stronger external demand also drove significant growth in imports and exports,with the latter rising 26% to RM1.2 trillion,a record high. Specifically,export of electronics,refined petroleum,palm oil and chemical products received a boost. Private consumption and investment regained strength while corporate investment remained sluggish. As a means to ensure public wellbeing,government continued to invest in public goods and service provision. Monetary policy continued to be accommodative and inflation remained moderate. Current account stayed in surplus,and external debt risks were mild. With the improvement of vaccination coverage,the pandemic seemed to have been brought under control and the government’s restrictions on the movement of people have gradually lifted. As a result,labor market experienced gradually recovery. Domestic consumption and external demand are expected to continue to improve in 2022. While uncertainties and downside risks associated with the pandemic and international affairs remain,the outlook of Malaysian economy in 2022 is generally optimistic.

作者简介
孔涛:孔涛,经济学博士,北京大学中国社会科学调查中心副研究员,主要研究方向为发展经济学和劳动经济学,关注中国和东南亚社会经济。
高可妍:高可妍,北京外国语大学亚非语言文学(马来语)专业硕士研究生,主要研究方向为马来西亚社会文化。