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2021~2022年疫情背景下东南亚经济的复苏

文章摘要

随着全球新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延,2020年东南亚国家普遍陷入严重的经济衰退。2021年4月起,各国疫情相继出现反弹,疫情防控形势趋于严峻,各国陆续推出应对政策和措施,以求尽快摆脱经济衰退的困境。2021年,东南亚国家经济呈现恢复性增长,显露复苏的态势,多数国家经济增速由负转正,而文莱和缅甸则由正转负。2022年,东南亚经济将保持复苏态势,但由于国内疫情形势仍在变化,各国经济复苏存在诸多不确定性,国际大宗商品价格上扬,发达国家收紧货币政策,引发东南亚各国通货膨胀,对各国金融市场造成冲击。

Abstract

With the spread of COVID-19 worldwide,the economies of Southeast Asian countries generally fell into severe economic recession in 2020. Since April 2021,the epidemic has rebounded in many countries,and the epidemic prevention and control pressure increased. Countries have continued to take actions in order to get out of the predicament of economic recession as soon as possible. In 2021,Southeast Asian countries economy returned-to growth except Brunei and Myanmar. In 2022,Southeast Asia’s economy will continue to maintain a sustained recovery,but due to the unprediction of domestic epidemic situation,the economic recovery is still full of uncertainties,the relapse of epidemic is the biggest obstacle to sustained economic recovery. In addition,the rise of international commodity prices,and tighter monetary policy in developed countries,also will lead to the occurence of inflation,and the fluctuation of the domestic financial market.

作者简介
王岩:王岩,经济学博士,厦门大学国际关系学院/南洋研究院教授,博士生导师。