德国在2021年迎来大选年,德国专注于联邦议院选举和“交通灯”联盟谈判,无暇关注法国也在即将到来的2022年举行总统和议会选举。与2017年联邦议院选举后不同,法国总统马克龙不再尝试用雄心勃勃的欧洲一体化计划要求德国联邦政府。从法国的角度来看,“交通灯”联盟的《联合执政协议》既包括对法友好的倡议,也不乏仍值得商榷的建议。德法在欧盟政策上的观念差异,也致使两国在共同安全与防务政策以及经济与货币联盟上关注点不同。分歧的核心在于,德法双方在美国对欧洲安全重要性问题上的观点有着不可调和差异。在北约和俄罗斯以及土耳其、利比亚、马里等问题上德法也存在不同的优先事项。虽然在德国没有将法国视为对立面的论调,但法国的部分右翼和左翼政客对德国采取了敌对的立场。英国脱欧后,德法两国必须为欧盟政策的制定托底,在快速发展的中国、对欧洲不太感兴趣的美国和难以揣摩的俄罗斯之间维护欧洲的利益。
Berlin was so busy with federal elections and coalition negotiations in 2021 that there was hardly any time to take a look at the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in France in 2022. Unlike after the federal elections in 2017,French President Macron avoided overburdening the federal government with overly ambitious proposals for European integration. From the French point of view,the “traffic light” coalition agreement contains a mixture of welcome initiatives and proposals that are to be judged with some caution. Divergent ideas in Berlin and Paris on EU policy again led to different priorities being set for the common security and defense policy and the economic and monetary union. At the core of the differences remained irreconcilable views on the significance of the USA for the security of Europe. There were also divergent priorities regarding NATO as well as Russia,Turkey,Libya and Mali. While there is no narrative in Germany that describes France as an antagonist,parts of the political right and left in France took a negative stance towards Germany. Post-Brexit,Berlin and Paris must develop the basis of an EU policy that protects Europe’s interests between a rising China,an America that turns away from Europe and an unpredictable Russia.