自1948年至今，缅甸作为一个独立国家已经走过70多年的历程，其中军人统治时期超过50年。缅甸威权政治的频繁抬头与长期存续是学界关注的焦点议题，特别是2021年2月缅甸国防军第四次接管国家政权以来，相关分析和讨论更为一时之盛。目前，军政关系与宪政危机是主要解释路径，本文另辟蹊径，从缅甸基层民众的社会情绪出发，从社会心理学的视角来解释缅甸军人政治与民主化进程相互交织、循环交替的原因。具体而言，军治时期缅甸基层社会对威权政治的恐惧是推动民主化进程的内在动力，而在民主化进程中缅族民众普遍抱持的对平权的恐惧是召唤威权政治的社会基础。基于此，缅甸政治转型的未来将长期在民主与威权的角力与反复中艰难前行。
Myanmar has been an independent country for more than 70 years since 1948，including more than 50 years of military rule. The frequent rise and long-term survival of authoritarian politics in Myanmar have been the focus of academic attention. After the Tatmadaw took power for the fourth time on February 2021，relevant analysis and discussion are numerous，mainly focus on the Tatmadaw-government relation and constitutional crisis. This paper tries a new way to explain the interweaving and cyclic alternation of Myanmar’s military politics and democratization process from the perspective of social psychology，especially the social emotions of the grass-roots people in Myanmar. To be specific，the fear of authoritarian politics in the grassroots society of Myanmar during the period of military rule was the internal power to promote the process of democratization. The fear of equal rights held by the Burmese people in the process of democratization is the social basis for calling for authoritarian politics. Based on this，the future of Myanmar’s political transformation will be a long struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.
