十年前开启的缅甸政治转型一度获得国际社会的广泛赞誉,然而2021年2月,缅军自行宣布国家进入紧急状态,重新接管政权。缅军是政治转型的设计者和推动者,何以在国内局势并未完全失控、改革进程脱离其初衷的情况下,断然采取行动,中止转型进程?本文尝试从缅军的角度进行解析,认为在历史与现实诸多因素的交织作用下,缅军已经成为一支具有高度组织性、纪律性和自觉性的政治力量,拥有极为强烈的政治责任意识和非常明确的自我功能定位,深深植根于国家和社会的各个方面,自认为在缅甸独立以来的发展过程中扮演了多种角色。当现实发展侵蚀了缅军参与政治的根基,对缅军履行政治功能、维护自身利益产生威胁时,他们不惜采取极端措施,暂停转型进程。在缅军看来,这并不是对过去十年政治转型方案和成果的否定,而是一次必要的调整。未来在国内局势稳定、选举规则修改完成后,缅军会再次选择退居幕后,实现形式上的还政于民。
Myanmar’s political transformation,which started a decade ago,has been widely welcomed by the international community. However,in February 2021,the Tatmadaw declared a state of emergency and took over the power again,much to the consternation of people at home and abroad. As the designer and promoter of Myanmar’s political transformation,why did the Tatmadaw take action to stop the transformation process at a time when the domestic situation is not completely out of its control?There are various opinions on this issue,including judgments based on ideology and values,and evaluations mixed with personal emotional preferences. This article attempts to analyze this case of military intervention in politics it from the perspective of the Tatmadaw,arguing that the Tatmadaw has become a highly organized,disciplined and conscious political power under the interweaving of many historical and realistic factors. It has a very strong sense of political responsibility and a very clear self-function positioning,which is deeply rooted in all aspects of the country and society. The Tatmadaw believes it has played multiple roles in the development process of Myanmar since its independence. When the transformation eroded the foundation of the Tatmadaw’s participation in politics and threatened its political functions to safeguard its own interests,it did not hesitate to take extreme measures to suspend the transformation process. In the view of the Tatmadaw,this is not a denial of Myanmar’s political transformation plans and achievements of the past decade,but a necessary adjustment. Looking forward to the future,after the domestic situation is stable and the election rules revised,the Tatamdaw will once again choose to take a back seat to achieve a pro forma return of power to the people.