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中东气候变化的安全风险与治理路径

文章摘要

气候变化是21世纪人类社会生存和发展的重大威胁。气候变化的不利影响通常会与其他复杂的环境和社会脆弱性相结合,加剧社会关系紧张,甚至诱发冲突和战争。由于特殊的地缘政治和自然生态,中东既是世界上冲突最集中的区域,也是最容易受到气候变化影响的地区之一。中东气候变化的脆弱性一方面受环境系统的敏感性影响,另一方面也与社会系统的适应力弱有关。中东气候变化潜在的安全风险是广泛而复杂的。在中东地区,气候变化会进一步加剧水资源短缺、粮食危机、能源供需矛盾以及公共卫生风险,从而进一步加剧该地区现有的紧张局势和人道主义危机。未来,随着气候变化的频度和幅度的提高,越来越多中东国家开始参与气候治理,气候变化给中东带来安全风险的同时也带来合作机遇。中东气候治理应从政府与民间、区域与国际四个层面强化合作,从而弥合区域治理领域的信任赤字。

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to the survival and development of human society in the 21st century. The adverse effects of climate change are often combined with other complex environmental and social vulnerabilities to exacerbate social tensions and even trigger conflicts and wars. Because of its special geopolitics and ecology,the Middle East is both one of the most conflict-prone regions in the world and one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The vulnerability to climate change in the Middle East is influenced on the one hand by the sensitivity of environmental systems and on the other hand by the vulnerability of social systems to adaptation. The potential security risks of climate change in the Middle East are broad and complex. In the Middle East,climate change will exacerbate existing tensions and humanitarian crises in the region by further exacerbating water shortages,food crises,energy supply-demand conflicts and public health risks. In the future,as the frequency and magnitude of climate change increase,more and more countries in the Middle East begin to participate in climate governance. Middle East climate governance should strengthen cooperation from four levels:government and civil,regional and international,so as to bridge the trust deficit in the field of regional governance.

作者简介
马帅:马帅,南开大学历史学院博士研究生,西北大学叙利亚研究中心特约助理研究员。