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新冠肺炎疫情对全球生产链重塑的影响(2022~2023)

文章摘要

新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行,不仅降低了物流体系效率,改变了人们的生产生活方式,也增加了全球生产链合作的不确定性。空间分离和限制性非关税措施使全球生产链所依赖的物流体系受阻,数字化技术广泛应用也使数字治理和互联网安全方面的问题更加突出,供求失衡下企业机会主义行为和不同国家政策理念差异加剧了全球生产链契约摩擦。在这种情况下,以美国为首的发达国家对全球生产链进行了重塑,确保重要而契约摩擦程度高的产品国内采购,同时在区域经济合作中采用了具有浓厚政治色彩的“近岸外包”和“友岸制造”。新冠肺炎疫情也凸显了全球生产链合作的重要性,如果发达国家抛弃政治偏见,国际社会共同合作进一步完善全球生产链治理机制,各国都将在全球生产链的共建、共享中增进社会福祉。

Abstract

The outbreak and spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in 2019 has not only reduced the efficiency of logistics systems,changed the way people work and live,but also increased the uncertainty in the global production chains. Spatial separation and restrictive non-tariff measures have hindered the logistics system on which the global production chains depend. With the widespread application of digital technology,global production chains have been exposed to the cybertheft of digitized commercial property. During the COVID-19 pandemic period,opportunistic behaviors of enterprises and dissensions in policies of different countries have aggravated the contract frictions in the global production chains. Under such situations,developed countries led by the United States try to domestically produce important intermediate goods with high contract frictions by reshoring,and regionally source important intermediate goods with medium contract frictions or without cost advantage by nearshoring,friend-shoring or ally-shoring. The COVID-19 pandemic also provides an opportunity to gain insight into the mechanism defects of global production chains. If developed countries abandon their political prejudices and the international community works together to further improve the governance of global production chains,all countries will improve their social welfare in the joint construction and sharing of the global production chains.

作者简介
李国学:李国学,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际直接投资理论与政策、全球生产网络理论与政策、全球创新战略。