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国际金融形势回顾与展望(2022~2023):风险显现

文章摘要

2022年国际金融市场剧烈动荡。新冠肺炎疫情的不断反复严重阻碍了全球经济复苏,全球供应链断裂以及乌克兰危机爆发大幅度推升了能源和大宗商品价格。为遏制严重的通货膨胀,美联储持续大幅加息,多数央行也纷纷步入加息周期。全球央行货币政策转向导致国际融资条件收紧,叠加地缘政治风险急剧变化,国际投资者规避风险情绪上升。外汇市场上美元兑欧元等主要货币大幅度升值。新兴市场和发展中经济体深受国际融资成本增加、货币贬值以及资本外流的影响,金融稳定性面临严峻的挑战,一些负债较高的国家更是面临新一轮的债务危机。

Abstract

In 2022,international financial market continuously experienced turbulence. The recurrence of COVID-19 pandemic continued severely hamper the global economic recovery,while the disruption of global supply chains and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have substantially raised energy and commodity prices. In order to curb severe inflation,the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply,and many other central banks have followed suit. The tightening of international financing conditions and sharp changes in geopolitical risks have led to an increase in risk aversion in the international financial market. In the foreign exchange market,the US dollar appreciated significantly against the euro and other major currencies. Emerging markets and developing economies have faced severe challenges to their financial stability due to the increase in international financing costs,currency depreciation and capital outflows. Some countries with high debts were in danger of falling into a new round of debt crisis.

作者简介
高海红:高海红,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究方向:国际金融。
杨子荣:杨子荣,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究方向:国际金融。