乌克兰危机、高油价、高粮价及美联储加息导致区域内国家经济增速分化、差异巨大。石油出口国因为油价持续高位将实现较高的经济增速，财政收支和国际收支情况也将进一步改善。石油进口国以及食品支出占比高的中低收入国家经济情况将进一步恶化。我们预计2022年西亚北非地区的经济增速为5.0%，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济增速为3.7%。国际社会应当共同合作，避免西亚非洲国家间出现差距持续扩大的情况。
The Ukrainian crisis，high oil prices，high food prices and the Fed’s interest rate hike have led to significant differences in the economic growth rates of countries in the region. Oil-exporting countries will achieve higher economic growth rates because of continued high oil prices. At the same time，the fiscal balance and balance of payments of oil-exporting countries will further improve. In contrast，the economic situation of oil-importing countries and low- and middle-income countries with a high share of food expenditures will deteriorate. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 5.0% in West Asia and North Africa and 3.7% in Sub-Saharan Africa. The international community should work together to avoid a situation where countries divergence continues to widen.
