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2022~2023年俄罗斯经济:制裁与应对

文章摘要

乌克兰危机逆转了俄罗斯强劲的经济复苏势头,经济增长率由2021年的4.6%大幅降至2022年上半年的-1.1%左右。乌克兰危机爆发以来,美西方国家对俄罗斯实行全面制裁,涉及实体、金融、投资、能源、国防、科技、运输等领域。凭借自然资源丰富优势、借助国际大宗商品价格高企的时机,俄罗斯政府推出了稳定金融市场、平行进口、财税刺激、对出口外资特殊管制等一系列政策措施,力求稳住国内实体经济。得益于能源出口转向弹性较大,俄罗斯经济在2022年上半年虽大幅下滑,但表现明显强于预期。但是美西方的技术、金融和市场封锁,欧洲石油产品进口禁令的逐步生效,将会严重损伤俄罗斯经济的长期增长动能。预计俄罗斯经济在2022年增速将下降4%左右,在2023年可能继续萎缩至3%左右。

Abstract

The crisis in Ukraine reversed the strong recovery of the Russian economy,which fell sharply from 4.6% in 2021 to around -1.1% in the first half of 2022. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,the United States and Western countries have imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia,involving entities,finance,investment,energy,defense,science and technology,transportation and other fields. Relying on abundant natural resources and high international commodity prices,the Russian government has introduced a series of policies and measures such as stabilizing the financial market,parallel imports,fiscal and tax stimulus,and special controls on export foreign investment,in an effort to stabilize the domestic real economy. Thanks to the relatively high elasticity of the shift in the destination of energy exports,although the Russian economy fell sharply in the first half of 2022,its performance was significantly stronger than expected. The technical,financial and market blockade of the United States and the West,as well as the gradual entry into force of the ban on the import of European petroleum products,will seriously damage the long-term growth momentum of the Russian economy. The Russian economy is expected to decline by about 4% in 2022 and may continue to shrink by about 3% in 2023.

作者简介
林屾:林屾,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员。
王永中:王永中,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员。