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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

全球应对气候变化:形势与前景(2021~2022)

文章摘要

2021年以来,世界各地气候极端事件频发,全球气候变化形势的一个重要特征是气候变化与粮食安全、水安全、空气污染、人道主义危机等其他风险交织影响,带来更加复杂严峻的后果。2021年,经济复苏导致各国对化石燃料的需求激增,全球二氧化碳排放量反弹,高于2019年水平,但可再生能源和核能在全球发电中占比仍高于煤炭,可再生能源成本继续下降。然而,化石燃料补贴增加、原材料成本上涨对可再生能源发展形成阻碍。但总体乐观的是,全球清洁能源支出在持平几年后开始上升。2021年,COP26的成功召开彰显了国际社会应对气候变化的共识与决心,“逐步减少”煤炭使用首次明确写入大会协议。在能源市场动荡、大国博弈加剧及乌克兰危机背景下,国际气候治理多边进程推进缓慢,但中美欧等主要国家的气候行动仍取得一定进展。气候与发展成为国际社会的关注重点。展望未来,能源转型是解决全球能源和气候危机的唯一路径,全球应对气候变化能否成功将主要取决于大国对气候多边进程的态度、世界能否提振减排雄心以及是否为能源转型提供充足可靠的资金。

Abstract

Since 2021,climate extremes have been occurring around the world,an important feature of the global climate change situation is the intertwined impact of climate change and other risks like food security,water security,air pollution,and humanitarian crisis,with more complex and severe consequences. Global CO2 emissions rebounded to above 2019 levels in 2021 as economic recovery led to a surge in demand for fossil fuels across countries,but renewables and nuclear still accounted for a larger share of global electricity generation than coal,and renewable energy costs continued to fall. However,increased fossil fuel subsidies and rising raw material costs are impeding renewable energy development. But the overall optimism is that global spending on clean energy is rising after being flat for several years. In 2021,the successful convening of COP26 demonstrated the international community’s consensus and determination to tackle climate change,and for the first time,“phasing down” coal use was explicitly written into the agreement of the conference. Against the backdrop of volatile energy markets,intensified power rivalries,and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the multilateral process of international climate governance has been slow to advance,but major countries like China,the US,and Europe have still made some progress in climate action. Climate and development have become the focus of the international community. Looking ahead,energy transition is the only way to solve the global energy and climate crisis. The success of the global response to climate change will largely depend on the attitude of major powers toward the multilateral climate process,the world’s ability to revitalize its ambition to reduce emissions,and the provision of sufficient and reliable funding for the energy transition.

作者简介
江思羽:江思羽,法学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为国际能源与气候政治。