东京奥运会之后，日本防疫政策逐渐放松，2022年日本各级政府再未发布“紧急事态宣言”，日本经济呈现稳定而缓慢的增长态势。不过，随着乌克兰危机的爆发、美联储货币政策收紧等，日本经济的外部环境风险再度增加，日本金融市场尤其是债市和汇市面临极大压力。2021年，日本经济实际增速为1.7%，国内生产总值仍未回到疫情前水平。2022年上半年，日本经济实际增速为1.1%，仍处于缓慢恢复状态。相较于实体经济的平稳恢复，日本的汇市和债市则经历了大幅波动。日元兑美元汇率在2022年上半年大贬17.9%，日本10年期国债收益率多次上探0.25%的上限。2022年下半年，日元仍将面临贬值压力；预计2023年会有所缓解，甚至不排除升值的可能，不过即使升值，其幅度与此轮贬值幅度相比也会较有限。在不发生系统性金融风险的前提下，日本经济大概率仍将保持缓慢增长状态，但势头可能会减弱，2023年经济增速预计会低于2022年。
After the Tokyo Olympics，Japan’s epidemic prevention gradually relaxed. In 2022，the Japanese government at all levels did not issue an “Declaration of a State of Emergency”，and the Japanese economy showed a stable and slow growth trend. However，with the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve of the United States，the external risks have increased again，and Japan’s finance，especially the bond market，is facing great pressure. In 2021，the real growth rate of Japan’s economy is 1.7%，the total GDP has not returned to pre-epidemic levels. In the first half of 2022，Japan’s real economic growth rate was 1.1%，which is still in a slow recovery state. Compared with the smooth recovery of the real economy，Japan’s foreign exchange and bond markets have experienced significant fluctuations. The yen fell sharply against the U.S. dollar by 17.9% in the first half of 2022，and the Japanese government bond yield touches 0.25% many times. In the second half of 2022，the yen exchange rate will still face depreciation pressure；it is expected to ease in 2023. There is also a possibility of Yen appreciate in 2023. Even if Yen appreciates，the magnitude will be limited. In 2023，the growth rate of Japanese economy will be lower than in 2022. If there is an outbreak of systemic risk，the growth rate will be lower.
