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2020~2021年菲律宾国防:军事现代化进程遇阻与防务合作多元化提速

文章摘要

受新冠肺炎疫情影响,2020年菲律宾对外防务交流活动一度陷入停滞,一年一度的菲美“肩并肩”联合军演因疫情取消,双边线下“军对军”对话也有所减少,客观上为杜特尔特政府调整菲美同盟关系制造了契机。此外,疫情冲击之下,菲律宾国防部门遭遇资金、物资、人才短缺的挑战,“防务现代化”第二阶段目标能否如期完成仍是未知数。在此背景下,菲律宾更加注重军购来源与军备合作的多元化,并实现了与印度等非传统防务伙伴国家的防务关系升级。对华关系方面,杜特尔特政府则继续秉持“对冲”的战略理念,加强与中国在低敏感度领域(军队防疫等)的合作,尤其是中国向菲律宾军队提供的防疫物资与疫苗援助,在特殊时期为增进两军互信、提升两军合作水平提供了新的机遇。

Abstract

Affected by the Covid-19,the Philippines’ overseas military activities were once closed and stagnated in 2020. The annual Philippine-US joint military exercise “Balikatan 2020” was cancelled due to the pandemic,and the frequency of face-to-face bilateral dialogues has also decreased. Objectively speaking,this situation has created an opportunity for the Rodrigo Duterte government to reconsider the Philippine-US alliance. In addition,the Philippine defense department is challenged by the lack of funds,materials,and talents. Thus,whether procurement plans in the second horizon of the “AFP modernization program” can be completed on schedule still left unknown. In this context,the Philippines has diversified its weapons procurement sources and arms cooperation,and focuses on developing defense partnership with non-traditional defense partner countries such as India. In terms of relations with China,the Duterte administration continues to uphold the hedging strategy and strengthen military cooperation with China in low-sensitivity areas. Particularly,the pandemic prevention materials and vaccine provided by China to the Philippine army provide new possibilities for enhancing mutual trust between them.

作者简介
洪晓文:洪晓文,南方财经全媒体集团智库研究员,研究领域为亚太地区海洋安全。