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2020~2021年菲律宾经济:新冠肺炎疫情冲击下的经济衰退与复苏

文章摘要

2020年,菲律宾经济受到新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,出现负增长。宏观经济总体呈现以下特点:通货膨胀保持基本平稳,但居民消费和企业信心不足,阻碍居民消费与企业投资;农业发展小幅萎缩,工业与服务业发展则出现大幅度衰退;进出口贸易呈现负增长。为应对新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,菲律宾政府采取了积极的财政与货币政策,并且实施了“四支柱社会经济战略”。与此同时,尽管菲律宾进出口贸易与外国投资总额均大幅下降,但国际经济合作持续推进,《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》正式签署。随着全球疫情防控取得进展、疫苗的大范围接种、国家刺激计划的实施,2021年菲律宾经济有望实现复苏,然而新冠肺炎疫情的反复也带来不确定性。

Abstract

In 2020,the Philippine economy was noticeably challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic,which led to a negative economic growth rate. The macro-economy exhibits the following characteristics:inflation has remained stable whereas household spending and business confidence are insufficient,which inhibits consumer consumption and business investment;agricultural development has shrunk slightly while the industry and service industries have experienced a sharp decline;imports and exports have shown negative growth. In response to the impact of the pandemic,the Philippine government has adopted proactive fiscal and monetary policies as well as carried out the Four-Pillar Socioeconomic Strategy against COVID-19. Meanwhile,even though international trading and foreign investment have significantly declined,international economic cooperation continues to advance;the Philippines is one of the member states for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Assuming an effective containment of the virus,a large vaccinated population,and robust domestic activities bolstered by the national stimulus plan,the Philippine economy is expected to recover but filled with precarity in 2021.

作者简介
蔡艳君:蔡艳君,中山大学国际关系学院副研究员。
伍致杭:伍致杭,中山大学国际关系学院研究助理。