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2020~2021年巴拉圭经济发展分析与展望

文章摘要

2020年,突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情给全球经济造成极大的震荡,导致巴拉圭经济在2019年经历停滞的基础上继续萎缩,GDP增长率为-1%。巴拉圭的支柱产业是农业、畜牧业和电力工业,出口商品以农牧产品和电力为主,这种产业结构和进出口贸易特点使巴拉圭受此次疫情影响小于拉美其他国家。面对疫情影响,巴拉圭政府先后颁布《紧急法令》和《经济复苏计划》,利用财政、货币和金融措施遏止经济恶化,但是由于税收锐减,支出激增,巴拉圭财政赤字率超过1。5%的阈值,达6。2%。进入2021年后,各国为应对疫情做出了调整,全球经济回暖,巴拉圭在上半年呈现经济复苏态势,但鉴于国内疫情走向不明朗、债务增加、出口商品对气候条件的高度依赖,未来巴拉圭经济增长将遭遇一定阻力。

Abstract

In 2020,the emergency of COVID-19 pandemic caused great shocks to the global economy,making Paraguayan economy to continue to shrink after experiencing economic stagnation in 2019. In 2020,the GDP growth rate of Paraguay is -1%. Agriculture,animal husbandry and electric power industry constitute Paraguay’s pillar industries. The export commodities are mainly agricultural and livestock products and electric power. This kind of industrial structure and international trade make Paraguay less affected by the pandemic than other countries in Latin America. Faced with the impact of the pandemic,the Paraguayan government has successively promulgated the “Emergency Law” and the “Economic Recovery Plan” to curb economic deterioration with fiscal,monetary and financial measures. However,due to the sharp drop in taxes and the surge in expenditures,Paraguay’s fiscal deficit rate ascended to -6.2%,beyond the provisional limit of 1.5%. After entering 2021,as countries have made adjustments and adaptations to respond to the pandemic,and the international economy has rebounded,Paraguay showed an economic recovery in the first half of the year. However,in view of the uncertainty of the domestic pandemic situation,the increase in debt,and the high dependence of export commodities on climatic conditions,Paraguay’s economic growth will encounter certain resistance in the future.

作者简介
樊珊萍:樊珊萍,硕士,西南科技大学外国语学院西班牙语系教师,主要研究方向为拉丁美洲研究、西班牙语语言学。