通过分析可以发现，在新冠肺炎疫情发生之前，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区经济在2015～2019年期间连续5年处于衰退和低速增长状态，各国政府的财政赤字和整体债务水平也随之有所攀升。为了应对突发的新冠肺炎疫情，各国政府又不得不采取相应的应急措施，在财政收入减少的情况下增加开支，进一步加大了业已存在的高水平财政赤字和债务负担。在这种情况下，要实现经济复苏和增长，财政政策的调整空间将极为有限。同时，更为重要的是，自疫情发生以来实施的货币宽松政策，也有可能在通胀压力之下开始收紧，它们将对该地区未来经济恢复和增长构成巨大挑战。可以预见的是，该地区各国在经济增长方面长期形成的发展不均衡的特点，不仅体现在经济衰退期间，而且在2021年以及之后的经济恢复时期，也将会变得突出。大多数国家完全走出衰退并恢复到之前水平的时间，可能会是2022年甚至更久以后。
This analysis found that because the local economy had been in recession and low-speed growth for 6 consecutive years during 2015-2019 before the outbreak of the pandemic，the fiscal deficits and overall debt of almost all countries have been in an elevated level already. In order to deal with the challenges and difficulties occurred in 2020，the fiscal support undoubtedly increased government’s expenditures while public revenues decreased in the same time due to the restrict measures，further pressed the existing high-level fiscal deficits and debt burdens. Under this circumstance，the space for fiscal policy adjustments will be extremely limited in 2021 to achieve economic recovery and growth. At the same time，the relatively loose monetary policies implemented since the outbreak of the pandemic may also begin to be tightened under inflationary pressures，that could be another huge challenge to the region’s economic recovery and growth.
It can be expected that the economic growth unevenness existed until today among the countries in the region will not only be reflected in the economic recession but also during the economic recovery in 2021 and the future. Many countries may postpone their recovery completely out of the recession and return to the previous level of pandemic until 2022 or even later.
