“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标实际对应经济发展的两个阶段，即“碳达峰”阶段是充分发展经济阶段，“碳中和”阶段是综合考虑经济、社会和环境因素的可持续绿色发展阶段。2020年9月，习近平主席在联合国大会上承诺力争于2030年前实现“碳达峰”目标。我国幅员辽阔，不同城市的发展阶段和碳排放差异显著，“碳达峰”目标约束下的城市转型将面临巨大的压力。在此背景下，我们综合Mann-Kendall和DEA模型在“碳达峰”约束条件下对各城市的绿色发展进行了评估，构建了城市绿色发展与碳排放达峰指数。该指数可以对城市发展的阶段和碳排放达峰的难易程度进行精准度量和监测，对推动城市绿色发展和碳排放达峰具有指导意义。
The dual carbon goal is actually a two-stage goal of economic development. The carbon peaking is aim for fully developing the economy，and the carbon neutralization is to seek a model for sustained development of economy with comprehensive consideration of economic，social and environmental factors. In September 2020，President Xi made a commitment to strive to achieve the carbon peaking goal by 2030 at the UN General Assembly. China has a vast territory，and there are significant differences in the development stages and carbon emissions of different cities. The task of urban transformation under the pressure of dual carbon goal is arduous and challenging. In this paper，we integrated Mann-Kendall and DEA models to evaluate the green development of urban under the constraint of carbon peaking，and constructed the urban green development and carbon peaking index. The index can measure and monitor the stage of urban development and the difficulty of reaching the carbon peaking，and has guiding significance for promoting urban green development and carbon peaking.
