受资源禀赋、历史发展及经济发展水平的影响,煤炭在我国能源结构中具有举足轻重的地位。自2020年提出“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标后,我国能源行业尤其是煤炭行业受到了较大影响,2021年甚至因对煤炭消费的控制而出现了电力短缺的现象。本报告从内生动力和外部影响因素两个方面,详细分析了我国煤炭刚性需求的来源,指出在我国经济基本面的长期向好趋势、对能源安全具备稳定的需求,以及相应政策支持下,在今后相当长时间内,我国煤炭市场都将保持较为稳定的态势,但随着消费总量逐步下行,行业也会面临各种挑战。因此,我国应当在宏观、中观、微观等层面都有所作为,通过完善碳交易机制、探索行业基础设施化发展路径、加大技术创新力度等方式,全面提升煤炭行业供需结构水平,支撑经济社会稳定发展,保障我国能源安全和“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标顺利实现。
Influenced by resource endowment,historical development and economic development level,coal plays an important role in China’s energy structure. Since the “Dual Carbon” Target was put forward in 2020,China’s energy industry,especially the coal industry,has been greatly affected. In 2021,there was even a power shortage due to the control of coal consumption. This report analyzes the sources of China’s rigid demand for coal in detail from two aspects of endogenous power and external influencing factors,and points out that under the long-term good trend of China’s economic fundamentals,the demand for energy security and stability,and the support of corresponding policies,China’s coal market will maintain a relatively stable trend for a long time in the future,but with the gradual decline of total consumption,the industry will also face various challenges. Therefore,China should make a difference at the macro,meso and micro levels,comprehensively improve the supply and demand structure level of the coal industry,support the stable development of economy and society,and ensure the smooth realization of China’s energy security and “double carbon” goals by improving the carbon trading mechanism,exploring the development path of industry as infrastructure,and strengthening technological innovation.