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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2021年世界电力市场:供给、需求与新能源

文章摘要

2021年,中国GDP同比增长8.1%,全社会用电量为8.31万亿千瓦时,同比增长10.3%。2021年,国外疫情加剧,全球供应链连连收紧,我国出口增长超出预期,生产用电需求连续多月超出预期,第二产业用电量增长10%以上。从需求端看,全球电力需求增速与GDP增速基本保持同步增长,其中,第二产业用电量最大,极端天气频发、强发,全球平均气温创历史新高等进一步增加了居民的用电需求。从供给端看,2021年,中国发电结构依旧以火电、水电、风电、核电、光电为主。然而,在“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标下,新能源(主要为风电、光电)装机量及发电量均大幅增长。2021年,无论是新能源发电还是传统火电,市场表现均大幅超过市场宽基指数。

Abstract

In 2021,China’s GDP will increase by 8.1% year-on-year,China’s economic slowdown since the outbreak has been mainly dragged down by final consumption expenditures,and external demand has played a positive role. That is to say,in 2021,the foreign epidemic will repeatedly exacerbate the tension of the global supply chain,my country’s domestic exports will increase more than expected,production electricity demand will exceed expectations for many consecutive months,the electricity consumption of the secondary industry will increase by more than 10% year-on-year,far exceeding the GDP growth rate over the same period. At the same time,from the demand side,electricity demand is closely related to economic growth,which basically keeps pace with GDP growth,and the secondary industry consumes the largest amount of electricity. From the perspective of supply,the domestic power generation structure in 2021 will still be dominated by thermal power,hydropower,wind power,nuclear power,and photovoltaics as the five most important power generation methods. Finally,under the “dual carbon” goal,the installed capacity and power generation of new energy sources(mainly wind power and photovoltaics)have increased significantly. In the whole year of 2021,whether it is new energy power generation or traditional thermal power,the market performance will greatly exceed the market broad-based index.

作者简介
马建胜:马建胜,中国能源研究会碳中和产业合作中心副秘书长。
赵皓月: