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2020~2021年澳大利亚经济形势分析与展望

文章摘要

2020年,澳大利亚经济出现了显著衰退。得益于澳政府推出的大规模刺激政策以及澳国内新冠肺炎疫情形势的缓和,自2020年第三季度开始,澳经济跌幅逐步收窄,物价逐步回升,国际贸易与投资反弹,就业与收入有所改善,金融市场企稳向好。但由于全球疫情形势尚不明朗,澳政府进一步推出大规模财政和货币刺激计划的政策空间十分有限,其经济仍面临着较大的下行压力。预计2021年澳经济增速将达到4.5%,2022年经济增长率可能下滑至2.8%左右。

Abstract

The Australian economy experienced a significant recession in 2020. Thanks to the massive stimulus policies launched by the Australian government and the easing of the COVID-19 situation in Australia,since the third quarter of 2020,the decline of the Australian economy has gradually narrowed,prices have progressively picked up,international trade and investment have rebounded,employment and income have improved,and the financial market has shown increasingly steady trends. Nevertheless,as the global pandemic situation is still unclear,the Australian government has very limited space to further launch large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus policies,and its economy still faces considerable downward pressure. Australia’s economic growth is expected to reach 4.5% in 2021 and may decline to around 2.8% in 2022.

作者简介
江思羽:江思羽,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所博士后,研究方向为国际政治经济学等。
徐秀军:徐秀军,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,研究方向为国际政治经济学、亚太区域合作等。