2021年的房地产市场呈现了明显的“上下半场”，市场热度在第三季度开始急转直下。政策调控显现出更强的影响力，重点城市土地集中出让使得土地市场的波动更加可控。对房地产行业融资的各类限制直接导致历史罕见的房企违约潮，且这一现象还将持续。2022～2030年中国总人口将达峰，同时叠加经济增速放缓、资产配置比例变化，越来越多的城市将在这一时期面临更大的房市下行压力，而人口流动造成的区域分化将使部分热点城市仍在相当长的一段时间内保持房地产市场上行。鉴于大部分城市对土地财政的依赖还非常普遍，房地产税很难短期内替代土地财政，因此房地产行业在未来10年内仍将扮演重要角色，不会迅速塌缩，但整体市场已无明显扩展空间。
The real estate market in 2021 showed a clear “upper and lower half”，and market enthusiasm began to decline sharply in the third quarter. Policy regulation has shown stronger influence，and the centralized transfer of land in key cities has made the fluctuation of the land market more controllable. Various restrictions on the financing of the real estate industry have directly led to a rare wave of defaults by real estate companies in history，and this symptom will continue. China’s total population will reach its peak between 2022-2030. At the same time，with the slowdown in economic growth and changes in asset allocation ratios，more and more cities will face greater downward pressure on the housing market during this period，which is caused by population migration. Regional differentiation will enable some hot cities to keep the real estate market going up for a long time. Given that most cities are still very dependent on land finances，it is difficult for real estate taxes to replace land finances in the short term. Therefore，the real estate industry will still play an important role in the next 10 years and will not collapse quickly，but the overall market has no obvious room for expansion.
