2021年中国经济延续了自2020年第二季度以来的持续复苏，突出表现为“前高后低”和“内弱外强”两大特征。展望2022年，中国经济仍将应对疫情长期化、供应链中断、输入性通胀和房地产危机四方面风险。实现高质量发展是新发展阶段经济政策的核心目标，但低生育率与人口老龄化、贫富差距扩大、经济结构服务化和“双碳”目标压力将构成四大长期挑战。如果疫情形势不发生超预期恶化，预计2022年中国实际GDP增速有望达到5%～5。5%。在基数效应下，2022年PPI同比将“前高后低”，逐步回落，全年中枢预计约为5%；由于猪肉价格开始回升，对CPI的扭曲效应减弱，加之宏观政策趋向宽松后上游通胀向下游传导加快，预计2022年CPI同比运行中枢将显著抬升至2。5%以上。
In 2021，China’s economy has continued recovery since the second quarter of 2020，which is highlighted by the two characteristics of “high in the front and low in the back” and “weak domestic demand and strong external demand”. Looking forward to 2022，China’s economy will still deal with the four risks of the prolonged epidemic，supply chain disruption，imported inflation and the real estate crisis. Achieving high-quality development is the core goal of economic policy in the new development stage，but low fertility and population aging，widening gap between rich and poor，servicing economic structure，and pressure from the “dual carbon” target will constitute four major long-term challenges. If the epidemic situation does not worsen than expected，China’s actual GDP growth rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.5% in 2022. Under the base effect，the PPI in 2022 will be “high before and low” year-on-year，and will gradually fall back. The annual center is expected to be about 5%；as the price of pork begins to rise，the distortion effect on CPI has weakened，and the macroeconomic policy tends to be loose after upstream inflation. The downstream transmission speeds up，and it is expected that in 2022，the CPI will increase significantly to more than 2.5% year-on-year.
