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长三角地区经济发展分析与展望(2020~2021)

文章摘要

本报告从总体概况、重点产业、增长动力三个方面分析了2020年长三角地区经济发展情况;基于战略机遇和主要挑战分析,对2021年长三角地区经济运行进行初步展望,主要结论为:长三角地区经济平稳增长,但增速继续下滑;经济总量接近24万亿元,全国占比基本稳定;经济质量有较大提升,地区间差距仍然较大;产业结构稳步升级,战略性新兴产业快速发展;投资、消费和出口总体平稳,拉动力略有减弱,但结构进一步优化;受新冠肺炎疫情影响,长三角地区经济下行风险较大,但预期仍将保持正增长态势。

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic development of Yangtze River Delta region in 2020 from three aspects:general overview,key industries and growth drivers. Based on the analysis of strategic opportunities and main challenges,the economic operation of Yangtze River Delta region in 2021 is preliminarily prospected. The main conclusions are as follows:The economy of Yangtze River Delta region grows steadily,but the growth rate continues to decline;the GDP nears 24 trillion yuan,and its share in the national economy is basically stable;the quality of the economy has improved considerably,and the gap between regions remains wide;the industrial structure was steadily upgraded and strategic emerging industries developed rapidly. Investment,consumption and export remained stable on the whole,with slightly weakened driving forces to the GDP,but their structure was further improved. Due to the impact of COVID-19,the economy of the Yangtze River Delta region is subject to greater downside risks,but is expected to maintain positive growth.

作者简介
杨凡:杨凡,博士,上海社会科学院信息研究所长江经济带研究室助理研究员,主要研究方向为科技创新与区域发展。
余小燕:余小燕,上海社会科学院应用经济学博士生。
王振:王振,研究员,博士生导师,上海社会科学院副院长,长三角与长江经济带研究中心常务副主任。