本文重点对2019年澳门宏观经济指标情况以及主要行业发展进行了较深入的分析和解读，并对2020年澳门经济发展进行了分析及预判。从2019年数据来看，澳门经济连续四季出现负增长，分别收缩-3.8%、-2.2%、4.5%和8.1%，全年经济实质收缩4.7%，再次进入调整期，全年经济景气指数亦呈缓慢下跌趋势。展望2020年，受新冠肺炎疫情影响，以及国际环境复杂多变，外部需求减弱，澳门经济将面对较为严峻的挑战。笔者预料2020年澳门经济将出现双位数负增长，但长远有国家作为澳门经济的强大后盾，可确保长期繁荣稳定。
This article analyses Macau’s macro-economic indicators and the development of its core industries in 2019，and attempts to provide an analysis and forecast for 2020. Based on the figures published，Macau’s economy has experienced negative growth for four consecutive quarters in 2019，with retractions of 3.8%，2.2%，4.5% and 8.1% respectively. The real annual retraction rate was 4.7%. An adjustment period has approached，with the Economic Prospect Indices showing a slow downward trend. Looking ahead to 2020，owing to the effects of Covid-19 and an increasingly complicated international situation，external demand will weaken. Macau’s economy will face more serious challenges. The author expects that although Macau’s economy may experience a double-digit negative growth，its long-term prosperity and stability will not be affected with the backing of the national economy at large.
