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2020年马来西亚经济形势:遭受打击但有望回弹

文章摘要

2020年,受到新冠肺炎疫情的严重影响,马来西亚经济全年负增长5.6%。上半年经济低迷不振,第二季度下滑17.1%,前6个月收缩8.3%;在多项经济复苏政策的助力下,第三、第四季度有所回暖,下行趋势放缓。居民收入和消费受损,但显现一定韧性。各行业均受到不同程度的打击,尤以服务业最为严重。进出口均严重受挫,但净出口商品为正向增长,服务净出口赤字扩大,收入账户赤字较低,经常账户盈余增加。私人消费和投资大幅下滑,政府消费投入以保障基本民生。年内货币政策宽松,通货膨胀缓和,国内金融市场波动,不确定性强。由于疫情对市场的冲击和政府对人员流动的限制,劳动力市场受到重创,社会保障体系经历严峻考验。随着疫情得到相对控制,新冠疫苗接种推进,隔离制度有所放宽,国内消费和外部需求预期在2021年显著回升,经济有望实现有力回弹。

Abstract

Largely due to negative impact of COVID-19,the Malaysian economy contracted 5.6% in 2020. The first half of the year was particularly distressing as the economy reached the lowest of point of growth at -17.1% in the second quarter. Aided by a range of supportive policies,positive signs of recovery emerged in the second half of the year and the decline slowed down. Household income and consumption demonstrated resilience given the magnitude of the shock. All sectors were hit by the pandemic,especially service industries. Both export and import slowed down significantly,while good account registered surplus,deficit of service account grew. Together with decline in the deficit of income account,Malaysia saw an increase in its current account surplus. Private consumption and investment declined sharply while public consumption expanded to maintain the basic wellbeing of the society. Monetary policy was accommodative and inflation was subdued. Domestic financial market underwent turbulence while labor market suffered. It is expected that as the vaccination coverage improves,the health crisis will gradually abate and containment measures will be lifted. Together with domestic and external demand recover,growth of Malaysian economy is set to rebound in 2021.

作者简介
孔涛:孔涛,经济学博士,北京大学中国社会科学调查中心副研究员,研究方向为发展经济学和劳动经济学,关注中国和东南亚社会经济。