2015年中国对外贸易呈现双速下降，但货物贸易净出口大幅增加对2015年经济增长的贡献占1/3份额，创造了一项历史奇迹。2016年外贸面临严峻考验，世界经济存在两种可能：一种是保持弱势复苏，另一种是陷入同步衰退。我们预计2016年以人民币计价的中国对外贸易增长也将出现两种结果：一种是降幅收窄，另一种是降幅扩大。客观评价对外贸易，需要区分出口和进口。中国对外贸易出口增长的数量和质量都在稳步提高，出口额下降的原因主要是汇率因素“作怪”，无需过分忧虑。
经济学中对一国进口的评价，首要标准为进口是否满足国民经济发展的需要，其中，尤其应该重视能源、重要战略资源供应是否安全、可靠。其次是购买同样数量和质量的进口产品，支付的价格是高还是低。支付价格越低，表明进口收益越大。
China’s foreign trade in 2015 exhibited double-speed downtrend，but a substantial increase in net exports of goods trade pulled one-third of economic growth in 2015，which created a historic miracle.
International trade in 2016 is facing severe test. There are two possibilities in the development of the world economy：one is that the recovery remains weak，the other is that the word economy is caught in a synchronized downturn. We expect RMB-denominated China’s foreign trade value in 2016 will either decline more slowly or more rapidly than in 2015. Objective evaluation of foreign trade requires the distinguishment of exports and imports. The quantity and quality of China’s export growth have been steadily improving and there is no need to worry about China’s export trade since the exchange rate factor was the “culprit” of the decline in China’s exports.
The primary criterion in the valuation of a country’s import trade is that whether the imports can meet the needs of national economic development. Firstly，special attention should pay to energy and the safe and reliable supply of important strategic resource. Secondly，when purchasing the same quantity and quality of imported products，whether the prices paid are high or low？The lower the prices，the greater import revenues are. Using this criterion to evaluate the 2015 Chinese import trade，we will draw completely different conclusion from the media.
