巴基斯坦是中国“一带一路”战略上的关键国家。本文认为，在一系列有利因素的支撑下，未来短期内巴政局有望逐步趋于稳定；长期来看，巴政局能否稳定则取决于内部问题的解决程度以及外部环境的变化，但从目前来看，政局趋于稳定的因素正在增加。在经济领域，国内政局和安全形势缓和、电力供给增加等因素有望带来短期经济增速的提升。我们认为，巴经济将经历一段艰苦的转型阶段，目前巴正处于转型的初级阶段，我们对巴未来的增长前景较为乐观。
Pakistan is the pivot country along China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In this article，we believe Pakistan’s political situation will gradually stabilize in the short term with a number of favorable factors；in the long term，the stability of its political situation depends on a series of internal and external factors. But for now，positive factors are accumulating. In terms of economy，improving political stability，security situation and power supply will all contribute to its economic growth in the short run. We expect Pakistan’s economy will experience a tough transition，and is currently in the early stage. In general，we hold an optimistic view for Pakistan’s future prospect.
