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中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易畅通及华商效应研究

文章摘要

“一带一路”是古代丝绸之路的延续和发展,反映了中国新型的国际合作理念,是中国在和平发展、合作共赢的时代主题下又一重大国际举措,而贸易畅通在“一带一路”合作实践中起着基础性和关键性的作用。本文首先对“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易现状、中国与世界各国的进出口贸易现状以及中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易现状进行量化分析。在此基础上,以2000~2015年我国及“一带一路”沿线43个国家的相关数据为分析样本,通过扩展的贸易引力模型实证研究国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值、人口数量、贸易距离以及双边贸易汇率、国家特征和贸易组织等变量对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易畅通的影响。此外,本文还从政治、经济、文化等多个角度,以中国海外最大的华商团体所在国家印度尼西亚为例,深入探讨了华商对贸易畅通所起的作用。

Abstract

“The Belt and Road Initiatives” is the essence of the ancient Silk Road extension and development,reflecting the new concept of international cooperation in China. Under the theme of “peaceful development and win-win cooperation”,it is another major international initiative. At the same time,unimpeded trade plays a fundamental and key role in the belt and road Initiative cooperation practice. This paper analyzes the status quo of import and export trade,including the countries along “The Belt and Road Initiatives”,China and countries around the world,as well as China and the countries along “The Belt and Road Initiatives”. Moreover,this paper chooses the relevant data from 2000 to 2015 between China and the 43 countries along “The Belt and Road” as an analysis of the sample. Through the expansion of the trade gravity model,this paper empirically studies the impact of variables on the unimpeded trade of China and the countries along “The Belt and Road”. These variables include GDP,per capita GDP,population,trade distance and bilateral trade exchange rate,national characteristics and trade organization,etc. In addition,this paper considers Indonesia as a study case,which has the largest overseas Chinese business community. The roles of Chinese business enterprises are explored in the unimpeded trade from the perspectives of politics,economy and culture.

作者简介
赵凯:赵凯,经济学博士,华侨大学数量经济研究院/统计学院/现代应用统计与大数据研究中心副教授,主要研究方向:博弈论、运筹学。
王鸿源:王鸿源,华侨大学统计学院硕士研究生,主要研究方向:金融统计。