作为人民币国际化的重要组成部分，离岸人民币市场的培育和发展对于扩大人民币在“一带一路”共建国家的影响力、促进人民币从周边化走向区域化、最终走向全球化有着重要意义。本文选取香港离岸人民币和在岸人民币以及“一带一路”主要共建国家货币汇率作为研究对象，利用VAR-BEKK-GARCH-DCC模型研究离岸和在岸人民币与“一带一路”主要共建国家汇率动态联动关系。研究发现离岸人民币对更多的货币汇率存在显著的均值溢出效应、波动溢出效应，且更容易受到“一带一路”主要共建国家货币汇率的影响。离岸和在岸人民币与其动态相关关系都有很强的持续性，但其动态相关系数波动性较大；说明离岸人民币与“一带一路”共建国家有着较强的动态联动性，但同在岸人民币一样，还未形成稳定的动态相关性。因此应进一步推进离岸人民币市场的建设，深化人民币汇率制度改革，加强人民币市场的监管，鼓励人民币跨境使用，完善人民币国际化基础设施。
As an important part of RMB internationalization，the cultivation and development of offshore RMB market is of great significance to expand the influence of RMB in the countries along the line of the “Belt and Road” initiative，promoting RMB from peripheral to regional，and finally to globalization. In this paper，we use VAR-BEKK-MVGARCH-DCC model to study the dynamic relationship between Hongkong offshore and onshore RMB and the exchange rates of the main countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative. The results show that offshore RMB has significant mean spillover effect and volatility spillover effect on more currency exchange rates，and it is more susceptible to the influence of the main currency exchange rates along the “Belt and Road” initiative. The dynamic related relationship between offshore and onshore RMB and the major countries currency exchange rate along the “Belt and Road” initiative have strong persistence，but their dynamic correlation coefficients fluctuate greatly. It shows that offshore RMB has a strong dynamic linkage with the countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative，but like onshore RMB，it has not yet formed a stable dynamic correlation. Therefore，we should further promote the construction of offshore RMB market，deepen the reform of RMB exchange rate system，strengthen the supervision of RMB market，encourage the cross-border use of RMB，improve the RMB internationalization infrastructure.
