冷战结束后，瑞典与北约公开靠近，逐渐与中立政策背离，因此出现了”瑞典将加入北约“的声音。本文从瑞典国内层面出发，指出中立政策在两次世界大战和冷战中的成功使其在瑞典人心中具有极高威信。由于”同代人效应“，部分国会政党摒弃了其曾支持的中立政策，将加入北约作为其对外政策纲领的目标之一。不仅如此，政府已不再公开宣称中立政策，而是使用”军事不结盟“一词。同时，近年来赞同加入北约的民意支持率呈上升态势。但是，持反对意见的民众仍占多数，并且还没有具备足够威信的政党能说服多数国民赞同加入北约。此外，由于支持军事不结盟政策的政党在国会的优势，使得加入北约的提案通过概率较低，这也使得国会政党不敢轻易使用全民公投。在可预见的未来，瑞典会继续加强与北约的军事合作，但不会加入北约。
After the end of the Cold War，Sweden and the NATO approach openly，and Sweden’s foreign behaviors gradually deviate from the neutral non-alignment policy，so there is a view that “Sweden will join NATO”. Starting from the Swedish domestic level，this paper points out that the success of neutral policy in the Two World Wars and the Cold War has made it extremely prestigious in the hearts of the Swedes. Due to the “the problem of generations”，some parliamentary parties have abandoned the neutrality policy they once supported，and，made NATO membership as one of the goals of their foreign policy agenda. At the same time，in recent years，the public opinion support rate that agreed to join NATO has been on the rise. However，the dissenting people still have a majority. And there is no party with enough prestige to convince the majority of the people to agree to NATO membership. In addition，due to the advantages of the political parties supporting the non-alignment policy in parliament，the probability of passing the NATO membership proposal is low，which also makes the political parties dare not easily use the referendum. Therefore，for the foreseeable future，Sweden will continue to strengthen military cooperation with NATO，but will not join it.
