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中国开发与利用北方海航道研究——基于SWOT分析方法

文章摘要

近年来,随着全球变暖加速,北极地区的冰川正在逐步消融,北方海航道的开发与利用问题日益受到世界主要国家的关注。中国政府和企业也开始重视该问题。通过运用战略管理中的SWOT分析法,直观展示了中国参与开发和利用北方海航道存在的优势与劣势、面临的机遇与威胁。鉴于北方海航道对中国维护海洋利益、保障能源安全等方面意义重大,中国仍应积极参与北方海航道开发工作,并引导船舶在条件成熟的情况下取道北方海航道。中国应以问题为导向,发挥自身优势规避劣势,坚持双边多边并举原则,有所侧重地加强同北极国家以及非北极国家间的合作。

Abstract

With the acceleration of global warming in recent years,glaciers in the Arctic region are gradually thawing,and the exploitation and utilization of the North Sea Route have drawn ever increasing attention from major countries in the world. The Chinese government and enterprises have also begun to show more concern oversuch issues. Taking China’s perspective and laying emphasis on China’s subject role,this paper uses the SWOT analysis in strategic management to visually show the strengths and weaknesses,opportunities and threats in China’s participation in this endeavor. By now China’s participation in the development of the North Sea Route is in the SO strategic period;that is,China’s own advantages and external opportunities are both significant,suggesting that it is the right time for China’s participation. China’s use of the North Sea Route is in the ST strategic period;that is,China’s advantages and the threats it faces are both evident. Thus China needs to use its advantages to defend against external threats. Due to the inadequate infrastructure,insufficient icebreakers,and insignificant economic advantages in the North Sea Route,the conditions for large-scale commercial use of the Route are not yet mature. But given the significance of the Northern Sea Route for China’s maintenance of maritime interests and energy security,China should keep on actively participating in its development and guide ships to take the Route when the conditions are ripe. China should be problem-oriented,making use of its strengths to avoid weaknesses,adhering to the principle of bilateral and multilateral development and focusing on strengthening ties with Arctic and non-Arctic countries alike.

作者简介
王树春:王树春 广东外语外贸大学国际关系学院教授,广东外语外贸大学俄罗斯研究中心主任,博士生导师,主要研究方向:俄罗斯国别、独联体地区、冰上丝绸之路等。
王陈生:王陈生 本文通讯作者,广东外语外贸大学西方语言文化学院博士生,主要研究方向:俄罗斯对外政策、俄罗斯国情。