后疫情时代，供给侧复苏面临高度不确定性，疫情反复、供应链阻塞、极端天气等负向冲击不断。一方面，叠加前期货币宽松和财政刺激政策带来的需求扩张，全球经济面临一定程度的滞胀风险。另一方面，疫情冲击导致全球主权债务规模进一步扩张，绝对规模和相对规模都达到了一个历史高位。在此背景下，滞胀和债务危机风险并存，并成为后疫情时代全球经济的重要挑战。本报告认为，在基准情形下，各国所面临的滞胀压力和债务危机风险均有望缓解。但是，仍需警惕负向的供给冲击进一步持续、各国经济复苏分化加剧、主要经济体逆周期政策退出时点选择不当的风险事件。在极端情形下，局部地区乃至更多国家可能因上述风险事件而陷入滞胀或爆发债务危机。作为应对，我国应坚持“以我为主”的宏观经济政策框架，同时积极加强卫生和金融领域的国际合作。
In the post-epidemic era，the global economy has been suffering from continuous negative supply shocks. On the one hand，combined with the impact of loose monetary policy，the world faces a certain degree of stagflation risk. On the other hand，under the impact of the pandemic，countries have implemented loose fiscal policies，which has resulted in a high stock of global sovereign debt both in absolute and relative terms. In this context，stagflation risk and debt risk coexist. This will be an important challenge for the global economy in the post-COVID-19 era. This paper believes that in the benchmark case，the overall risk of stagflation and debt crisis pressure are expected to ease. But in extreme cases，stagflation pressures could also trigger a regional or even broader debt crisis. In this regard，China should stick to its own macroeconomic policy framework and actively strengthen international cooperation in the fields of health and finance.
| Keywords： | Global EconomyDebt CrisisStagflation |
